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AM edition. Issue number 923

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Quote: James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton

“I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” - James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton

James Carville’s famous quip speaks volumes about the immense, often unseen power wielded by the bond market over governments and economies. This power was vividly demonstrated in early April 2025, when a dramatic clash between US policy decisions and market forces played out.

The April 2025 Treasury Market Turmoil and Tariff Reversal:

In early April 2025, the Trump administration announced a set of aggressive new tariffs, including broad "reciprocal" tariffs targeting numerous trading partners. The reaction in financial markets was swift and severe. While stock markets tumbled, the real drama unfolded in the US Treasury market – typically considered the world's ultimate safe haven.

Beginning Tuesday, April 8th, and intensifying overnight into Wednesday, April 9th, Treasury bonds experienced a sharp sell-off. This wasn't the usual inverse relationship where bonds rally when stocks fall due to recession fears. Instead, both asset classes plunged simultaneously, a rare and alarming pattern previously seen during the acute phase of the COVID-19 panic in March 2020.

Yields on US Treasuries soared. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped by over 60 basis points (0.60 percentage points) in less than 48 hours, briefly touching 4.51% on Wednesday. The 30-year yield even breached the 5% mark. This surge in US borrowing costs rippled globally, pushing yields higher in the UK and Japan.

Several factors fueled this bond market rout:

1. Policy Uncertainty & Inflation Fears: The new tariffs raised immediate concerns about escalating trade wars, potential retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and ultimately, higher inflation, which erodes the value of fixed bond payments.
2. Weak Auction Demand: An auction for 3-year Treasury notes on Tuesday, April 8th, met with weak demand, signalling investor nervousness and contributing to the upward pressure on yields across all maturities.
3. Technical Unwinding: The sudden spike in volatility triggered margin calls for highly leveraged hedge fund strategies built around Treasuries. Funds were forced to rapidly sell Treasuries to raise cash and reduce risk, creating a downward spiral in prices (and upward spiral in yields). Key trades affected included:
   • Basis Trades: Bets on tiny price differences between Treasury bonds and futures contracts, often leveraged 50-100 times. Unwinding these trades, estimated to involve hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars, forced large-scale Treasury sales.
   • Swap Spread Trades: Bets on the relationship between Treasury yields and interest rate swap rates. Recent volatility forced an unwind here too, exacerbating the sell-off.
   • Off-the-Run Trades: Exploiting small yield differences between newly issued ("on-the-run") and older ("off-the-run") Treasuries. Widening spreads indicated stress and forced selling.
4. Safe Haven Concerns: The simultaneous fall in stocks and bonds led analysts like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to suggest a "generalized aversion to US assets," questioning the traditional safe-haven status of Treasuries. Speculation, though unproven, arose about whether major holders like China might be selling Treasuries in retaliation.

The speed and severity of the Treasury sell-off raised fears of systemic risk – a potential market freeze-up similar to March 2020, which could necessitate emergency intervention by the Federal Reserve. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to calm nerves, describing it as an "uncomfortable but normal deleveraging," the pressure became undeniable.

President Trump himself acknowledged watching the bond market and noted people "were getting yippy." Faced with this intense market pressure, the administration abruptly reversed course on Wednesday, April 9th, announcing a withdrawal or "90-day pause" on the most controversial "reciprocal" tariffs, though other tariffs remained.

While the stock market celebrated with a relief rally, Treasury yields remained elevated, reflecting lingering uncertainty. The episode served as a stark reminder: the bond market, through the collective actions of countless global investors reacting to perceived risks, could indeed "intimidate" and force a rapid change in government policy.

How Bond Trading Works:

At its core, a bond is a loan made by an investor to a borrower (like a government or corporation). The borrower pays periodic interest (coupon) and repays the principal amount at maturity.

• Issuance: Governments (like the US Treasury) issue bonds to finance spending. They sell these bonds through auctions.
• Trading: After issuance, bonds trade in the secondary market. Investors buy and sell bonds based on their views on interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and the creditworthiness of the issuer.
• Price and Yield: Bond prices and yields (the effective interest rate) move inversely. When demand for a bond increases, its price goes up, and its yield goes down. When investors sell bonds, prices fall, and yields rise. Rising yields mean higher borrowing costs for the issuer.
• US Treasuries: The market for US Treasury bonds is the largest and most liquid in the world. Treasury yields are a benchmark for interest rates globally and are crucial for pricing other financial assets. They are also widely used as collateral in other financial transactions (like repo loans).
• Leverage and Complex Trades: As seen in the April 2025 event, sophisticated investors like hedge funds often use leverage (borrowed money, often via the repo market using Treasuries as collateral) to amplify returns from small price discrepancies between related instruments (e.g., cash bonds vs. futures, on-the-run vs. off-the-run bonds, bonds vs. swaps). While these trades can enhance market liquidity, the high leverage makes them vulnerable to sudden volatility, potentially triggering forced selling and market disruption.

Who is James Carville and Why He Said This:

James Carville, nicknamed the "Ragin' Cajun," is a prominent American political consultant and strategist, best known for masterminding Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign. He is famous for his sharp wit, populist messaging, and coining the phrase, "It's the economy, stupid," which became the unofficial slogan of the Clinton campaign, emphasizing the focus needed to win the election during an economic recession.

Carville made the remark about wanting to "come back as the bond market" likely during the early 1990s. At that time, the Clinton administration faced significant pressure from the bond market regarding the national debt and budget deficits. The term "bond vigilantes" was often used to describe investors who would sell government bonds (thus driving up interest rates and borrowing costs) if they disapproved of a government's fiscal policies, effectively forcing policymakers towards austerity or deficit reduction.

Carville's quote perfectly captures the frustration and awe politicians often feel towards the faceless, powerful entity that is the global bond market. Unlike voters or political opponents, the bond market operates on cold calculation of risk and return. Its judgments, expressed through buying and selling that moves yields, can impose discipline and constraints on governments far more effectively, and often more intimidatingly, than any political force. The events of April 2025 showed this power remains profoundly relevant.

Quote: Jim Collins & Jerry Porras - Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies

“Building a visionary company requires one percent vision and 99 percent alignment.” - Jim Collins & Jerry Porras - Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies

Jim Collins and Jerry Porras are renowned authors and management theorists best known for their influential book, "Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies," published in 1994. This work emerged from a comprehensive six-year research project that aimed to identify the characteristics that enable certain companies to thrive over the long term, often outlasting their competitors and adapting to changing market conditions.

Jim Collins, born on January 25, 1958, is a prominent business consultant and lecturer who has dedicated much of his career to studying what makes companies successful. He is also the author of several bestsellers, including "Good to Great," which further explores the principles of effective leadership and organizational success. Collins's research emphasizes the importance of disciplined thought and action, as well as the need for a strong organizational culture.

Jerry Porras, born on September 20, 1938, is an esteemed academic and professor emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business. His expertise lies in organizational behavior and change, and he has contributed significantly to the understanding of how companies can develop and maintain a visionary approach. Porras's work often focuses on the dynamics of leadership and the role of core values in guiding organizational success.

In "Built to Last," Collins and Porras introduce the concept that while having a clear vision is essential for a company's direction, the real challenge lies in achieving alignment across the organization. The quote, “Building a visionary company requires one percent vision and 99 percent alignment,” encapsulates this idea, highlighting that the execution of a vision is heavily dependent on the collective efforts and commitment of all members within the organization. This alignment ensures that everyone is working towards the same goals, fostering a cohesive culture that supports long-term success.

The book has been widely referenced and praised by business leaders and strategists for its practical insights and frameworks. It identifies key habits and practices that distinguish visionary companies, such as maintaining a core ideology, embracing change, and setting ambitious goals. The principles outlined in "Built to Last" continue to resonate with organizations seeking to cultivate enduring success and navigate the complexities of the business landscape. Collins and Porras's work has left a lasting impact on the field of management, inspiring countless leaders to prioritize alignment and shared purpose in their strategic endeavors.

Quote: A.G. Lafley & Roger L. Martin in their book Playing to Win

“Winning should be at the heart of every strategy.” - A.G. Lafley & Roger L. Martin in their book Playing to Win

A.G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin are prominent figures in the field of strategic management, particularly known for their collaborative work on the book "Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works," published in 2013. This book has become a cornerstone in understanding how organizations can effectively develop and implement winning strategies.

A.G. Lafley, born on June 13, 1947, is best known for his tenure as the CEO of Procter & Gamble (P&G), where he led the company through significant transformations. Under his leadership, P&G doubled its sales and expanded its portfolio of billion-dollar brands. Lafley emphasized a consumer-centric approach, advocating that understanding consumer needs is essential for driving innovation and growth. His mantra, “Consumer is Boss,” reflects his belief in prioritizing customer insights in strategic decision-making.

Roger L. Martin, born on August 4, 1956, is a respected academic and former Dean of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto. He is recognized for his contributions to strategic thinking and management theory, particularly through his development of integrative thinking and design thinking concepts. Martin's work emphasizes the importance of making strategic choices that align with an organization’s goals and capabilities.

In "Playing to Win," Lafley and Martin present a framework for strategy that revolves around five key choices: defining a winning aspiration, determining where to play, deciding how to win, identifying core capabilities, and establishing management systems. The quote, “Winning should be at the heart of every strategy,” encapsulates the essence of their approach, which asserts that a clear focus on winning is crucial for effective strategy formulation. This perspective encourages organizations to be deliberate in their choices and to align their resources and efforts toward achieving competitive advantage.

The book has been widely referenced by business leaders and strategists who appreciate its practical insights and actionable frameworks. Lafley and Martin's emphasis on the importance of winning as a strategic objective resonates with many organizations striving to navigate complex market dynamics and achieve sustainable growth. Their collaborative work continues to influence strategic management practices across various industries, reinforcing the idea that a winning mindset is essential for success.

Quote: Henry Mintzberg Management thinker and strategic planning theorist

“Strategy is not the consequence of planning, but the opposite: its starting point.” - Henry Mintzberg, Management thinker and strategic planning theorist

Henry Mintzberg, born on September 2, 1939, in Montreal, Canada, is a renowned academic and author known for his extensive work in management and organizational theory. He is currently the Cleghorn Professor of Management Studies at McGill University, where he has been teaching since 1968. Mintzberg's contributions to the field of strategic management have significantly shaped how organizations approach strategy formulation and implementation.

The quote, “Strategy is not the consequence of planning, but the opposite: its starting point,” reflects Mintzberg's critical perspective on traditional strategic planning processes. He argues that many organizations mistakenly view strategy as a linear outcome of formal planning, which often leads to rigidity and a disconnect from the realities of the business environment. Instead, Mintzberg posits that strategy should emerge from the ongoing interactions and experiences within the organization, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and responsiveness.

Mintzberg's work challenges the conventional wisdom that prioritizes analytical and prescriptive approaches to strategy. He advocates for a more nuanced understanding of strategy as a dynamic process that involves both deliberate planning and emergent practices. This perspective is encapsulated in his concept of the "5 Ps of Strategy," which includes strategy as Plan, Ploy, Pattern, Position, and Perspective. Each of these dimensions highlights different aspects of how organizations can navigate their strategic landscapes.

His ideas have resonated with many business leaders and scholars who recognize the limitations of rigid planning frameworks. Mintzberg's emphasis on the importance of real-world experiences and the need for flexibility in strategy formulation has influenced various sectors, encouraging organizations to embrace a more holistic and adaptive approach to strategic management.

In summary, Henry Mintzberg's insights into strategy underscore the significance of viewing strategy as a foundational element that informs planning rather than a mere outcome of it. His work continues to inspire discussions on how organizations can effectively navigate the complexities of their environments while remaining true to their strategic objectives.

Quote: Michael E. Porter, American  economist and founder of strategic management

“The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.” - Michael E. Porter, American  economist and founder of strategic management

Michael E. Porter, born on May 23, 1947, is a prominent American academic and a leading authority in the field of competitive strategy. He is best known for his groundbreaking work at Harvard Business School, where he has shaped the understanding of how businesses can achieve competitive advantage. His influential theories, particularly the Five Forces framework and the Value Chain model, have become foundational in strategic management.

Porter's quote, “The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do,” encapsulates a core principle of his approach to strategic management. This perspective emphasizes that effective strategy is not merely about making choices on what to pursue but also about recognizing and intentionally avoiding certain paths. By doing so, organizations can focus their resources and efforts on areas where they can create the most value and differentiate themselves from competitors.

Throughout his career, Porter has highlighted the importance of understanding industry structure and competitive forces. His work suggests that companies must analyze their competitive environment to make informed strategic decisions. This analysis involves assessing factors such as the intensity of rivalry among existing competitors, the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, the threat of new entrants, and the threat of substitute products or services.

Porter's insights have been referenced by numerous business leaders and strategists who recognize the value of his frameworks in navigating complex market dynamics. His emphasis on strategic choice has influenced various sectors, from healthcare to technology, encouraging organizations to adopt a disciplined approach to decision-making.

In summary, Michael Porter’s contributions to strategic management have provided a robust framework for understanding competition and guiding organizations in their strategic choices. His quote serves as a reminder that clarity in what to exclude from a strategy is just as crucial as the decisions made about what to include.

Quote: Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“Before you decide on the what, you need to know your why. To know your why, you need to know yourself. And that, my friends, is an inside job.” - Rich Roll, Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

Rich Roll is a vegan ultra-endurance athlete, wellness advocate, and bestselling author. He graduated from Stanford University and Cornell Law School, later becoming an entertainment attorney. Approaching 40, and after a history of struggling with drugs and alcohol, he found himself in poor health. This prompted a major life change where he embraced a plant-based diet and dedicated himself to fitness.

Two years later, he surprised the ultra-endurance community by completing the 320-mile Ultraman World Championship, finishing in the top 10. In May 2010, he and Jason Lester completed the EPIC5 CHALLENGE, consisting of five ironman-distance triathlons on five Hawaiian Islands in under a week. Rich is the author of Finding Ultra and The Plantpower Way. He hosts the Rich Roll Podcast, exploring themes of wellness, plant-based nutrition, and personal growth.

Quote: Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“We are all capable of so much more than we allow ourselves to be... So let’s hit reset. Let's begin anew the process of stepping into that person we always wanted, and deserve, to be.” - Rich Roll,
Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

Rich Roll is a name synonymous with transformation. He's a renowned ultra-endurance athlete, a New York Times bestselling author, and a podcast host who has captivated audiences with his remarkable journey of self-discovery. But his story isn't just about athletic feats; it's a testament to the power of personal reinvention.

For years, Roll lived a life many would consider successful – a high-powered entertainment lawyer, enjoying the trappings of that lifestyle. However, he found himself struggling with health issues and a deep sense of dissatisfaction. His diet was poor, he was overweight, and he felt disconnected from his potential.

The turning point came in 2007. Facing a stark warning from his doctor, Roll made the radical decision to overhaul his life. He traded processed foods and late nights for plant-based nutrition and grueling physical challenges. He began with a 30-day plant-based challenge, which evolved into a lifelong commitment to a vegan lifestyle and a relentless pursuit of endurance events – from ultramarathons to Ironman triathlons.

His experiences, documented in his memoir Finding Ultra, and through his popular podcast The Rich Roll Podcast, have resonated with countless people seeking to overcome their own limitations and unlock their potential. The quote, "We are all capable of so much more than we allow ourselves to be... So let's hit reset. Let's begin anew the process of stepping into that person we always wanted, and deserve, to be," encapsulates this core message – a call to action to recognize our inherent capabilities and actively pursue a more fulfilling and authentic life.

Quote: Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“When you think you’re done, you’ve only tapped into 40 percent of what you are truly capable of.” - Rich Roll,
Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author, and host of the The Rich Roll Show podcast, is known for his transformative journey from a self-described “lost soul” to one of the world’s fittest men. The quote reflects his belief in human potential, rooted in both physical and mental resilience.

In his memoir Finding Ultra, Roll details his midlife transformation: overcoming addiction, obesity, and existential despair through plant-based nutrition, rigorous training, and mindfulness. During grueling races like the Ultraman World Championship (a 70.3-mile triathlon), he learned that perceived limits—like exhaustion or self-doubt—are often mental barriers. The “40 percent” idea stems from teachings he encountered, including those of author David Goggins, who emphasizes that true potential lies far beyond initial fatigue.

Roll uses this philosophy to inspire others to reframe challenges. Whether in sports, career shifts, or personal growth, the quote underscores that surrendering too soon stifles progress. It’s a call to recognize that effort and persistence can unlock capabilities we often dismiss as impossible.

His work across books, podcasts, and speaking engagements amplifies this message, emphasizing that transformation is accessible to anyone willing to confront their mental limits. For Roll, the journey isn’t just about physical endurance—it’s about aligning action with purpose and embracing growth beyond comfort zones.

Quote: Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“Pursue what’s in your heart, and the universe will conspire to support you.” - Rich Roll,
Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

Rich Roll is a transformative figure known for his journey from a corporate lawyer and former alcoholic to an ultra-endurance athlete and wellness advocate. His memoir Finding Ultra (2012) chronicles his dramatic shift: overcoming addiction, embracing plant-based nutrition, and competing in grueling events like the Ultraman triathlon (a 320km race combining swimming, cycling, and running). The quote reflects his philosophy of aligning actions with inner purpose, a theme central to his life story.

Context from Finding Ultra:

The quote appears in Roll’s reflections on pursuing ultra-endurance sports as a path to self-discovery. He argues that when one commits wholeheartedly to their passions—despite fear or uncertainty—the universe responds by aligning opportunities and support. This idea is rooted in his own experience: after years of self-destructive habits, he found clarity through rigorous training and mindfulness, which led to unexpected mentors, community, and success.

Motivation Behind the Quote:

Roll’s life was marked by a "dark period" of addiction and existential despair before he turned to fitness and spirituality. The quote encapsulates his belief that authentic pursuit of one’s purpose—not just goals but heartfelt missions—creates momentum. He emphasizes action over passive hope: discipline in training, honesty with oneself, and resilience through challenges are the "conspiracy" that opens doors.

Similar Themes in Other Works:

1. Napoleon Hill’s Think and Grow Rich: Stresses focused intent and persistence as catalysts for success.
2. Law of Attraction: Popularized by The Secret, though Roll’s version emphasizes effort over passive "manifesting."
3. David Goggins’ "Mastery": Highlights suffering and relentless action to unlock potential, akin to Roll’s endurance ethos.

Why It Resonates:

Roll’s message is universal but grounded in grit: the universe doesn’t "magically" solve problems, but alignment with one’s values attracts resources, courage, and community. His story—transforming pain into purpose—shows that dedication to authenticity can rewrite trajectories, even after setbacks.

Final Note:

The quote isn’t about luck; it’s a call to earn support through relentless pursuit of what matters. As Roll writes: "Faith in the journey itself is the foundation." His legacy lies in proving that reinvention is possible when heart and action align.

Quote: Rich Roll, ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“And at the end of the day, there is nothing but the journey, because the destination is pure illusion.” - Rich Roll,
Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

“And at the end of the day, there is nothing but the journey, because the destination is pure illusion.” - Rich Roll,
Ultra-endurance athlete, bestselling author

Rich Roll is a former corporate attorney turned ultra-endurance athlete and wellness advocate, best known for his transformative journey from an unhealthy, sedentary lifestyle to becoming one of the world’s most accomplished plant-based athletes. Born in 1965, he spent much of his early adulthood struggling with addiction, poor health, and a disconnect from purpose. A near-fatal health crisis in his late 30s prompted him to overhaul his life, leading him to adopt a plant-based diet, embrace mindfulness practices, and pursue extreme endurance sports as a path to self-discovery.

In 2008, Roll completed the Ultraman World Championship—a grueling 320-kilometer race combining swimming, cycling, and running—finishing second overall at age 41. This achievement marked his rise in the ultra-endurance community and solidified his belief that human potential is boundless when fueled by intention and resilience. His bestselling memoir Finding Ultra (2012) chronicles this transformation, emphasizing themes of perseverance, redefining success, and finding meaning through the journey itself rather than external milestones.

The quote “And at the end of the day, there is nothing but the journey, because the destination is pure illusion” reflects Roll’s philosophy that growth lies in the process of striving, not in achieving specific outcomes. This idea stems from his athletic pursuits, where races are physically and mentally demanding tests of endurance, requiring focus on each step rather than fixating on finish lines. It also aligns with his advocacy for mindfulness and holistic wellness, which prioritize present-moment awareness over chasing societal or personal "goals."

Roll has shared variations of this sentiment in interviews, podcasts (his Untethered podcast features conversations with thought leaders on similar themes), and writings, framing life as an ongoing exploration. The quote resonates with his belief that true fulfillment comes from embracing challenges, learning from setbacks, and staying aligned with one’s values—core tenets he explores through his work in fitness, nutrition, and personal development.

Notably, the quote has been featured in wellness communities, motivational content, and compilations of inspirational sayings, often paired with discussions on purpose-driven living and overcoming self-imposed limitations. Its simplicity underscores a universal truth central to Roll’s legacy: the journey itself is where meaning is found.