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Our latest perspective - What's behind under-performing listed companies?
Outperform through the downturn
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Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential
Press drew attention last year to a slew of JSE-listed companies whose share prices had collapsed over the past few years. Some were previous investor darlings. Analysis pointed to a toxic combination of decreasing earnings growth and increased leverage. While this might be a warning to investors of a company in trouble, what fundamentals drive this combination?
In our analysis, company expansion driven by the need to compensate for poor performance in their core business is a typical driver of exactly this outcome.
This article was written in January 2020 but publication was delayed due to the outbreak of Covid-19. Five months after South Africa’s first case, we update our analysis and show that core-based companies outperformed diverse peers by 29% over the period.
Management should always seek to reach full potential in their core business. Attempts to expand should be to a clearly logical set of adjacencies to which they can apply their capabilities using a repeatable business model.
In the article “Steinhoff, Tongaat, Omnia… Here’s the dead giveaway that you should have avoided these companies, says an asset manager,” (Business Insider SA, Jun 11, 2019) Helena Wasserman lists a number of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed shares that have plummeted in recent years.
In many cases these companies’ corresponding sectors have been declining. However, in most of the sectors there is at least one company that has outperformed the rest. What is it about these outperformers that distinguishes them from the rest?
The outperformers have typically shown strong financial performance – be that Growth, ROE, ROA, RONA or Asset Turnover – and varying degrees of leverage. However, performance against these metrics is by no means consistent – see our analysis.
What is consistent is that the outperformers all show clearly delineated core businesses and ongoing growth towards full potential in these businesses alongside growth into clear adjacencies that protect, enhance and leverage the core. In some cases, the core may have been or is currently being redefined, typically through gradual, step-wise extension along logical adjacencies. Redefinition is particularly important in light of the digital transformation seen in many industries. The outperformers are very seldom diversified across unrelated business segments – although isolated examples such as Bidvest clearly exist in other sectors.
Analysis of the over- and underperformers in the sectors highlighted in the article shows that those following a clear core-based strategy have typically outperformed peers through the initial months of the downturn caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
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PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing
Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.
We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.
Read more from the original article.
Fast Facts
Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough
Key insights
It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.
In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.
While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.
Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.
Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.
Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.
However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.
Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.
Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.
Selected News
Quote: David Solomon – Goldman Sachs CEO
“If the firm grows and you expand and you can invest in other areas for growth, we’ll wind up with more jobs… we have at every step along the journey for the last forty years as technology has made us more productive. I don’t think it’s different this time [with AI].” – David Solomon – Goldman Sachs CEO
David Michael Solomon, born in 1962 in Hartsdale, New York, is an American investment banker and DJ, currently serving as the CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs. His journey into the financial sector began after he graduated with a BA in political science from Hamilton College. Initially, Solomon worked at Irving Trust Company and Drexel Burnham before joining Bear Stearns. In 1999, he moved to Goldman Sachs as a partner and became co-head of the High Yield and Leveraged Loan Business.
Solomon’s rise within Goldman Sachs was swift and strategic. He became the co-head of the Investment Banking Division in 2006 and held this role for a decade. In 2017, he was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer, and by October 2018, he succeeded Lloyd Blankfein as CEO. He became Chairman in January 2019.
Beyond his financial career, Solomon is known for his passion for music, producing electronic dance music under the alias “DJ D-Sol”. He has performed at various venues, including nightclubs and music festivals in New York, Miami, and The Bahamas.
Context of the Quote
The quote highlights Solomon’s perspective on technology and job creation in the financial sector. He suggests that while technology, particularly AI, can enhance productivity and potentially lead to job reductions in certain areas, the overall growth of the firm will create more opportunities for employment. This view is rooted in his experience observing how technological advancements have historically led to increased productivity and growth for Goldman Sachs.
Leading Theorists on AI and Employment
Several leading theorists have explored the impact of AI on employment, with divergent views:
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Joseph Schumpeter is famous for his theory of “creative destruction,” which suggests that technological innovations often lead to the destruction of existing jobs but also create new ones. This cycle is seen as essential for economic growth and innovation.
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Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, has discussed the Fourth Industrial Revolution, emphasizing how AI and automation will transform industries. However, he also highlights the potential for new job creation in emerging sectors.
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Economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have written extensively on how technology can lead to both job displacement and creation. They argue that while AI may reduce certain types of jobs, it also fosters economic growth and new opportunities.
These theorists provide a backdrop for understanding Solomon’s optimistic view on AI’s impact on employment, focusing on the potential for growth and innovation to offset job losses.
Conclusion
David Solomon’s quote encapsulates his optimism about the interplay between technology and job creation. Focusing on the strategic growth of Goldman Sachs, he believes that technological advancements will enhance productivity and create opportunities for expansion, ultimately leading to more employment opportunities. This perspective aligns with broader discussions among economists and theorists on the transformative role of AI in the workplace.
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