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Quantified Strategy
Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
Our latest
Thoughts
Podcast – The Real AI Signal from Davos 2026
While the headlines from Davos were dominated by geopolitical conflict and debates on AGI timelines and asset bubbles, a different signal emerged from the noise. It wasn’t about if AI works, but how it is being ruthlessly integrated into the real economy.
In our latest podcast, we break down the “Diffusion Strategy” defining 2026.
3 Key Takeaways:
- China and the “Global South” are trying to leapfrog: While the West debates regulation, emerging economies are treating AI as essential infrastructure.
- China has set a goal for 70% AI diffusion by 2027.
- The UAE has mandated AI literacy in public schools from K-12.
- Rwanda is using AI to quadruple its healthcare workforce.
- The Rise of the “Agentic Self”: We aren’t just using chatbots anymore; we are employing agents. Entrepreneur Steven Bartlett revealed he has established a “Head of Experimentation and Failure” to use AI to disrupt his own business before competitors do. Musician will.i.am argued that in an age of predictive machines, humans must cultivate their “agentic self” to handle the predictable, while remaining unpredictable themselves.
- Rewiring the Core: Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the difference between an “AI veneer” and a fundamental rewire. It’s no longer about summarising meetings; it’s about autonomous agents resolving customer issues without scripts.
The Global Advisors Perspective: Don’t wait for AGI. The current generation of models is sufficient to drive massive value today. The winners will be those who control their “sovereign capabilities” – embedding their tacit knowledge into models they own.
Read our original perspective here – https://with.ga/w1bd5
Listen to the full breakdown here – https://with.ga/2vg0z

Strategy Tools
PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing
Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.
We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.
Read more from the original article.

Fast Facts
Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough
Key insights
It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.
In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.
While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.
Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.
Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.
Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.
However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.
Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.
Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.
Selected News
Term: European option
“A European option is a financial contract giving the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) an underlying asset at a predetermined strike price, but only on the contract’s expiration date, unlike American options that allow exercise anytime before expiry. ” – European option
Core definition and structure
A European option has the following defining features:1,2,3,4
- Underlying asset – typically an equity index, single stock, bond, currency, commodity, interest rate or another derivative.
- Option type – a call (right to buy) or a put (right to sell) the underlying asset.1,3,4
- Strike price – the fixed price at which the underlying may be bought or sold if the option is exercised.1,2,3,4
- Expiration date (maturity) – a single, pre-specified date on which exercise is permitted; there is no right to exercise before this date.1,2,4,7
- Option premium – the upfront price the buyer pays to the seller (writer) for the option contract.2,4
The holder’s payoff at expiration depends on the relationship between the underlying price and the strike price.1,3,4
Payoff profiles at expiry
For a European option, exercise can occur only at maturity, so the payoff is assessed solely on that date.1,2,4,7 Let S_T denote the underlying price at expiration, and K the strike price. The canonical payoff functions are:
- European call option – right to buy the underlying at K on the expiration date. The payoff at expiry is: \max(S_T - K, 0) . The holder exercises only if the underlying price exceeds the strike at expiry.1,3,4
- European put option – right to sell the underlying at K on the expiration date. The payoff at expiry is: \max(K - S_T, 0) . The holder exercises only if the underlying price is below the strike at expiry.1,3,4
Because there is only a single possible exercise date, the payoff is simpler to model than for American options, which involve an optimal early-exercise decision.4,6,7
Key characteristics and economic role
Right but not obligation
The buyer of a European option has a right, not an obligation, to transact; the seller has the obligation to fulfil the contract terms if the buyer chooses to exercise.1,2,3,4 If the option is out-of-the-money on the expiration date, the buyer simply allows it to expire worthless, losing only the paid premium.2,3,4
Exercise style vs geography
The term European refers solely to the exercise style, not to the market in which the option is traded or the domicile of the underlying asset.2,4,6,7 European-style options can be traded anywhere in the world, and many options traded on European exchanges are in fact American style.6,7
Uses: hedging, speculation and income
- Hedging – Investors and firms use European options to hedge exposure to equity indices, interest rates, currencies or commodities by locking in worst-case (puts) or best-case (calls) price levels at a future date.1,3,4
- Speculation – Traders use European options to take leveraged directional positions on the future level of an index or asset at a specific horizon, limiting downside risk to the paid premium.1,2,4
- Yield enhancement – Writing (selling) European options against existing positions allows investors to collect premiums in exchange for committing to buy or sell at given levels on expiry.
Typical markets and settlement
In practice, European options are especially common for:4,5,6
- Equity index options (for example, options on major equity indices), which commonly settle in cash at expiry based on the index level.5,6
- Cash-settled options on rates, commodities, and volatility indices.
- Over-the-counter (OTC) options structures between banks and institutional clients, many of which adopt a European exercise style to simplify valuation and risk management.2,5,6
European options are often cheaper, in premium terms, than otherwise identical American options because the holder sacrifices the flexibility of early exercise.2,4,5,6
European vs American options
| Feature | European option | American option |
|---|---|---|
| Exercise timing | Only on expiration date.1,2,4,7 | Any time up to and including expiration.2,4,6,7 |
| Flexibility | Lower – no early exercise.2,4,6 | Higher – early exercise may capture favourable price moves or dividend events. |
| Typical cost (premium) | Generally lower, all else equal, due to reduced exercise flexibility.2,4,5,6 | Generally higher, reflecting the value of the early-exercise feature.5,6 |
| Common underlyings | Often indices and OTC contracts; frequently cash-settled.5,6 | Often single-name equities and exchange-traded options. |
| Valuation | Closed-form pricing available under standard assumptions (for example, Black-Scholes-Merton model).4 | Requires numerical methods (for example, binomial trees, finite-difference methods) because of optimal early-exercise decisions. |
Determinants of European option value
The price (premium) of a European option depends on several key variables:2,4,5
- Current underlying price S_0 – higher S_0 increases the value of a call and decreases the value of a put.
- Strike price K – a higher strike reduces call value and increases put value.
- Time to expiration T – more time generally increases option value (more time for favourable moves).
- Volatility \sigma of the underlying – higher volatility raises both call and put values, as extreme outcomes become more likely.2
- Risk-free interest rate r – higher r tends to increase call values and decrease put values, via discounting and cost-of-carry effects.2
- Expected dividends or carry – expected cash flows paid by the underlying (for example, dividends on shares) usually reduce call values and increase put values, all else equal.2
For European options, these effects are most famously captured in the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing framework, which provides closed-form solutions for the fair values of European calls and puts on non-dividend-paying stocks or indices under specific assumptions.4
Valuation insight: put-call parity
A central theoretical relation for European options on non-dividend-paying assets is put-call parity. At any time before expiration, under no-arbitrage conditions, the prices of European calls and puts with the same strike K and maturity T on the same underlying must satisfy:
C - P = S_0 - K e^{-rT}
where:
- C is the price of the European call option.
- P is the price of the European put option.
- S_0 is the current underlying asset price.
- K is the strike price.
- r is the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate.
- T is the time to maturity (in years).
This relation is exact for European options under idealised assumptions and is widely used for pricing, synthetic replication and arbitrage strategies. It holds precisely because European options share an identical single exercise date, whereas American options complicate parity relations due to early exercise possibilities.
Limitations and risks
- Reduced flexibility – the holder cannot respond to favourable price moves or events (for example, early exercise ahead of large dividends) before expiry.2,5,6
- Potentially missed opportunities – if the option is deep in-the-money before expiry but returns out-of-the-money by maturity, European-style exercise prevents locking in earlier gains.2
- Market and model risk – European options are sensitive to volatility, interest rates, and model assumptions used for pricing (for example, constant volatility in the Black-Scholes-Merton model).
- Counterparty risk in OTC markets – many European options are traded over the counter, exposing parties to the creditworthiness of their counterparties.2,5
Best related strategy theorist: Fischer Black (with Scholes and Merton)
The strategy theorist most closely associated with the European option is Fischer Black, whose work with Myron Scholes and later generalised by Robert C. Merton provided the foundational pricing theory for European-style options.
Fischer Black’s relationship to European options
In the early 1970s, Black and Scholes developed a groundbreaking model for valuing European options on non-dividend-paying stocks, culminating in their 1973 paper introducing what is now known as the Black-Scholes option pricing model.4 Merton independently extended and generalised the framework in a companion paper the same year, leading to the common label Black-Scholes-Merton.
The Black-Scholes-Merton model provides a closed-form formula for the fair value of European calls and, via put-call parity, European puts under assumptions such as geometric Brownian motion for the underlying price, continuous trading, no arbitrage and constant volatility and interest rates. This model fundamentally changed how markets think about the pricing and hedging of European options, making them central instruments in modern derivatives strategy and risk management.4
Strategically, the Black-Scholes-Merton framework introduced the concept of dynamic delta hedging, showing how writers of European options can continuously adjust positions in the underlying and risk-free asset to replicate and hedge option payoffs. This insight underpins many trading, risk management and structured product strategies involving European options.
Biography of Fischer Black
- Early life and education – Fischer Black (1938 – 1995) was an American economist and financial scholar. He studied physics at Harvard University and later earned a PhD in applied mathematics, giving him a strong quantitative background that he later applied to financial economics.
- Professional career – Black worked at Arthur D. Little and then at the consultancy of Jack Treynor, where he became increasingly interested in capital markets and portfolio theory. He later joined the University of Chicago and then the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he collaborated with leading financial economists.
- Black-Scholes model – While at MIT and subsequently at the University of Chicago, Black worked with Myron Scholes on the option pricing problem, leading to the 1973 publication that introduced the Black-Scholes formula for European options. Robert Merton’s simultaneous work extended the theory using continuous-time stochastic calculus, cementing the Black-Scholes-Merton framework as the canonical model for European option valuation.
- Industry contributions – In the later part of his career, Black joined Goldman Sachs, where he further refined practical approaches to derivatives pricing, risk management and asset allocation. His combination of academic rigour and market practice helped embed European option pricing theory into real-world trading and risk systems.
- Legacy – Although Black died before the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Scholes and Merton for their work on option pricing, the Nobel committee explicitly acknowledged Black’s indispensable contribution. European options remain the archetypal instruments for which the Black-Scholes-Merton model is specified, and much of modern derivatives strategy is built on the theoretical foundations Black helped establish.
Through the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the associated hedging concepts, Fischer Black’s work provided the essential strategic and analytical toolkit for pricing, hedging and structuring European options across global derivatives markets.
References
1. https://www.learnsignal.com/blog/european-options/
2. https://cbonds.com/glossary/european-option/
3. https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-center/futures-and-options/european-option
4. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/derivatives/european-option/
5. https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/american-vs-european-options/
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_style

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