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Our latest perspective - What's behind under-performing listed companies?
Outperform through the downturn
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Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential
Press drew attention last year to a slew of JSE-listed companies whose share prices had collapsed over the past few years. Some were previous investor darlings. Analysis pointed to a toxic combination of decreasing earnings growth and increased leverage. While this might be a warning to investors of a company in trouble, what fundamentals drive this combination?
In our analysis, company expansion driven by the need to compensate for poor performance in their core business is a typical driver of exactly this outcome.
This article was written in January 2020 but publication was delayed due to the outbreak of Covid-19. Five months after South Africa’s first case, we update our analysis and show that core-based companies outperformed diverse peers by 29% over the period.
Management should always seek to reach full potential in their core business. Attempts to expand should be to a clearly logical set of adjacencies to which they can apply their capabilities using a repeatable business model.
In the article “Steinhoff, Tongaat, Omnia… Here’s the dead giveaway that you should have avoided these companies, says an asset manager,” (Business Insider SA, Jun 11, 2019) Helena Wasserman lists a number of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed shares that have plummeted in recent years.
In many cases these companies’ corresponding sectors have been declining. However, in most of the sectors there is at least one company that has outperformed the rest. What is it about these outperformers that distinguishes them from the rest?
The outperformers have typically shown strong financial performance – be that Growth, ROE, ROA, RONA or Asset Turnover – and varying degrees of leverage. However, performance against these metrics is by no means consistent – see our analysis.
What is consistent is that the outperformers all show clearly delineated core businesses and ongoing growth towards full potential in these businesses alongside growth into clear adjacencies that protect, enhance and leverage the core. In some cases, the core may have been or is currently being redefined, typically through gradual, step-wise extension along logical adjacencies. Redefinition is particularly important in light of the digital transformation seen in many industries. The outperformers are very seldom diversified across unrelated business segments – although isolated examples such as Bidvest clearly exist in other sectors.
Analysis of the over- and underperformers in the sectors highlighted in the article shows that those following a clear core-based strategy have typically outperformed peers through the initial months of the downturn caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Strategy Tools

PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing
Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.
We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.
Read more from the original article.
Fast Facts
Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough
Key insights
It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.
In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.
While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.
Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.
Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.
Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.
However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.
Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.
Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.
Selected News

Quote: Peter Drucker – Father of modern management
“Until a business returns a profit that is greater than its cost of capital, it operates at a loss.” – Peter Drucker – Father of modern management
Drucker argues that a company cannot be considered genuinely profitable unless it covers not only its explicit costs, but also compensates investors for the opportunity cost of their capital. Traditional accounting profits can be misleading: a business could appear successful based on net income, yet, if it fails to generate returns above its cost of capital, it ultimately erodes shareholder value and consumes resources that could be better employed elsewhere.
Drucker’s quote lays the philosophical foundation for modern tools such as Economic Value Added (EVA), which explicitly measure whether a company is creating economic profit—returns above all costs, including the cost of capital. This insight pushes leaders to remain vigilant about capital efficiency and value creation, not just superficial profit metrics.
About Peter Drucker
Peter Ferdinand Drucker (1909–2005) was an Austrian?American management consultant, educator, and author, widely regarded as the “father of modern management”. Drucker’s work spanned nearly seven decades and profoundly influenced how businesses and organisations are led worldwide. He introduced management by objectives, decentralisation, and the “knowledge worker”—concepts that have become central to contemporary management thought.
Drucker began his career as a journalist and academic in Europe before moving to the United States in 1937. His landmark study of General Motors, published as Concept of the Corporation, was profoundly influential, as were subsequent works such as The Practice of Management (1954) and Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices (1973). Drucker believed business was both a human and a social institution. He advocated strongly for decentralised management, seeing it as critical to both innovation and accountability.
Renowned for his intellectual rigour and clear prose, Drucker published 39 books and numerous articles, taught executives and students around the globe, and consulted for major corporations and non?profits throughout his life. He helped shape management education, most notably by establishing advanced executive programmes in the United States and founding the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Drucker’s thinking was always ahead of its time: he predicted the rise of Japan as an economic power, highlighted the critical role of marketing and innovation, and coined the term “knowledge economy” long before it entered common use. His work continues to inform boardroom decisions and management curricula worldwide.
Leading Theorists and the Extension of Economic Profit
Peter Drucker’s insight regarding the true nature of profit set the stage for later advances in value-based management and the operationalisation of economic profit.
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Alfred Rappaport: An influential academic, Rappaport further developed the shareholder value framework, arguing that businesses should be managed with the explicit aim of maximising long-term shareholder value. His book Creating Shareholder Value helped popularise the use of discounted cash flow (DCF) and economic profit approaches in corporate strategy and valuation.
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G. Bennett Stewart III: Stewart co-founded Stern Stewart & Co. in the 1980s and transformed economic profit from a theoretical concept into a practical management tool. He developed and commercialised the Economic Value Added (EVA) methodology—a precise, formula?driven approach for measuring value creation. Stewart advocated for detailed accounting adjustments and consistent estimation of the cost of capital, making EVA an industry standard for linking performance management, incentive systems, and investor capital efficiency.
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Joel Stern: As co?founder of Stern Stewart & Co., Joel Stern played a key role in the advancement and global adoption of EVA and value?based management practices. Together with Stewart, he advised leading corporations on capital allocation, performance measurement, and the creation of shareholder value through disciplined management.
All of these theorists put into action Drucker’s call for a true, economic definition of profit—one that demands a firm not just survive, but actually add value over and above the cost of all capital employed.
Summary
Drucker’s quote is a challenge: unless a business rewards its capital providers adequately, it is, in economic terms, “operating at a loss.” This principle, codified in frameworks like EVA by leading theorists such as Stewart and Stern, remains foundational to modern strategic management. Drucker’s legacy is the call to measure success not by accounting convention, but by the rigorous, economic reality of genuine value creation.
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