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Global Advisors: a consulting leader in defining quantified strategy, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions, achieving measureable results.

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Quantified Strategy

Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions

Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.

We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.

We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.

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Thoughts

Podcast – The Real AI Signal from Davos 2026

Podcast – The Real AI Signal from Davos 2026

While the headlines from Davos were dominated by geopolitical conflict and debates on AGI timelines and asset bubbles, a different signal emerged from the noise. It wasn’t about if AI works, but how it is being ruthlessly integrated into the real economy.

In our latest podcast, we break down the “Diffusion Strategy” defining 2026.

3 Key Takeaways:

  1. China and the “Global South” are trying to leapfrog: While the West debates regulation, emerging economies are treating AI as essential infrastructure.
    • China has set a goal for 70% AI diffusion by 2027.
    • The UAE has mandated AI literacy in public schools from K-12.
    • Rwanda is using AI to quadruple its healthcare workforce.
  2. The Rise of the “Agentic Self”: We aren’t just using chatbots anymore; we are employing agents. Entrepreneur Steven Bartlett revealed he has established a “Head of Experimentation and Failure” to use AI to disrupt his own business before competitors do. Musician will.i.am argued that in an age of predictive machines, humans must cultivate their “agentic self” to handle the predictable, while remaining unpredictable themselves.
  3. Rewiring the Core: Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the difference between an “AI veneer” and a fundamental rewire. It’s no longer about summarising meetings; it’s about autonomous agents resolving customer issues without scripts.

The Global Advisors Perspective: Don’t wait for AGI. The current generation of models is sufficient to drive massive value today. The winners will be those who control their “sovereign capabilities” – embedding their tacit knowledge into models they own.

Read our original perspective here – https://with.ga/w1bd5

Listen to the full breakdown here – https://with.ga/2vg0z
While the headlines from Davos were dominated by geopolitical conflict and debates on AGI timelines and asset bubbles, a different signal emerged from the noise. It wasn't about if AI works, but how it is being ruthlessly integrated into the real economy.

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Strategy Tools

Fast Facts

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Key insights

It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.

In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.

While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.

Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.

Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.

Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.

However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.

Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.

Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.

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Selected News

Term: Model weights

Term: Model weights

“Model weights are the crucial numerical parameters learned during training that define a model’s internal knowledge, dictating how input data is transformed into outputs and enabling it to recognise patterns and make predictions.” – Model weights

Model weights represent the learnable numerical parameters within a neural network that determine how input data is processed to generate predictions, functioning similarly to synaptic strengths in a biological brain.1,2,4 These values control the influence of specific features on the output, such as edges in images or tokens in language models, through operations like matrix multiplications, convolutions, or weighted sums across layers.1,2,3 Initially randomised, weights are optimised during training via algorithms like gradient descent, which iteratively adjust them to minimise a loss function measuring the difference between predictions and actual targets.1,2,5

In practice, for a simple linear regression model expressed as y = wx + b, the weight w scales the input x to predict y, while b is the bias term.2 In complex architectures like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) or large language models (LLMs), weights include filters detecting textures and fully connected layers combining features, often numbering in billions.1,2,5 This enables tasks from image classification to real-time translation, with pre-trained weights facilitating transfer learning on custom datasets.1

Weights are distinct from biases, which add normalisation and extra characteristics to the weighted sum before activation functions, aiding forward and backward propagation.3,6 Protecting these parameters is vital, as they encode the model’s performance, robustness, and decision logic; unauthorised changes can lead to malfunction.5 In LLMs, weights boost emphasis on words or associations, shaping generative outputs.3

Key Theorist: Geoffrey Hinton

The preeminent theorist linked to model weights is **Geoffrey Hinton**, often called the ‘Godfather of Deep Learning’ for pioneering backpropagation and neural network training techniques that optimise these parameters.1,2 Hinton’s seminal 1986 paper with David Rumelhart and Ronald Williams popularised backpropagation, the cornerstone algorithm for adjusting weights layer-by-layer based on error gradients, revolutionising machine learning.2,4

Born in 1947 in Wimbledon, London, Hinton descends from a lineage of scientists: his great-great-grandfather George Boole invented Boolean logic, his grandfather Charles Howard Hinton coined ‘hyperspace’, and his great-uncle was logician Bertrand Russell. Initially studying experimental psychology at Cambridge (BA 1970), Hinton earned a PhD in AI from Edinburgh in 1978, focusing on Boltzmann machines-early stochastic neural networks with learnable weights. Disillusioned with symbolic AI, he championed connectionism, simulating brain-like learning via weights.

In the 1980s, amid the first AI winter, Hinton persisted at Carnegie Mellon and Toronto, developing restricted Boltzmann machines for unsupervised pre-training of weights, addressing vanishing gradients. His 2006 breakthrough with Alex Krizhevsky and Ilya Sutskever-training deep belief networks on ImageNet-proved deep nets with billions of weights could excel, sparking the deep learning revolution.1 At Google Brain (2013-2023), he advanced capsule networks and transformers indirectly influencing LLMs. Hinton quit Google in 2023, warning of AI risks, and won the 2018 Turing Award with Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio. His work directly underpins how modern models, including LLMs, learn weights to recognise patterns and predict outcomes.3,5

References

1. https://www.ultralytics.com/glossary/model-weights

2. https://www.tencentcloud.com/techpedia/132448

3. https://blog.metaphysic.ai/weights-in-machine-learning/

4. https://tedai-sanfrancisco.ted.com/glossary/weights/

5. https://alliancefortrustinai.org/how-model-weights-can-be-used-to-fine-tune-ai-models/

6. https://h2o.ai/wiki/weights-and-biases/

"Model weights are the crucial numerical parameters learned during training that define a model's internal knowledge, dictating how input data is transformed into outputs and enabling it to recognise patterns and make predictions." - Term: Model weights

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