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Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
Our latest
Thoughts
Podcast – The Real AI Signal from Davos 2026
While the headlines from Davos were dominated by geopolitical conflict and debates on AGI timelines and asset bubbles, a different signal emerged from the noise. It wasn’t about if AI works, but how it is being ruthlessly integrated into the real economy.
In our latest podcast, we break down the “Diffusion Strategy” defining 2026.
3 Key Takeaways:
- China and the “Global South” are trying to leapfrog: While the West debates regulation, emerging economies are treating AI as essential infrastructure.
- China has set a goal for 70% AI diffusion by 2027.
- The UAE has mandated AI literacy in public schools from K-12.
- Rwanda is using AI to quadruple its healthcare workforce.
- The Rise of the “Agentic Self”: We aren’t just using chatbots anymore; we are employing agents. Entrepreneur Steven Bartlett revealed he has established a “Head of Experimentation and Failure” to use AI to disrupt his own business before competitors do. Musician will.i.am argued that in an age of predictive machines, humans must cultivate their “agentic self” to handle the predictable, while remaining unpredictable themselves.
- Rewiring the Core: Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the difference between an “AI veneer” and a fundamental rewire. It’s no longer about summarising meetings; it’s about autonomous agents resolving customer issues without scripts.
The Global Advisors Perspective: Don’t wait for AGI. The current generation of models is sufficient to drive massive value today. The winners will be those who control their “sovereign capabilities” – embedding their tacit knowledge into models they own.
Read our original perspective here – https://with.ga/w1bd5
Listen to the full breakdown here – https://with.ga/2vg0z

Strategy Tools
PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing
Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.
We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.
Read more from the original article.

Fast Facts
Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough
Key insights
It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.
In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.
While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.
Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.
Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.
Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.
However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.
Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.
Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.
Selected News
Term: Barrier option
“A barrier option is a type of derivative contract whose payoff depends on the underlying asset’s price hitting or crossing a predetermined price level, called a “barrier,” during its life.” – Barrier option
A barrier option is an exotic, path-dependent option whose payoff and even validity depend on whether the price of an underlying asset hits, crosses, or breaches a specified barrier level during the life of the contract.1,3,6 In contrast to standard (vanilla) European or American options, which depend only on the underlying price at expiry (and, for Americans, the ability to exercise early), barrier options embed an additional trigger condition linked to the price path of the underlying.3,6
Core definition and mechanics
Formally, a barrier option is a derivative contract that grants the holder a right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a pre-agreed strike price if, and only if, a separate barrier level has or has not been breached during the option’s life.1,3,4,6 The barrier can cause the option to:
Key characteristics:
- Exotic option: Barrier options are classified as exotic because they include more complex features than standard European or American options.1,3,6
- Path dependence: The payoff depends on the entire price path of the underlying – not just the terminal price at maturity.3,6 What matters is whether the barrier was touched at any time before expiry.
- Conditional payoff: The option’s value or existence is conditional on the barrier event. If the condition is not met, the option may never become active or may cease to exist before expiry.1,2,3,4
- Over-the-counter (OTC) trading: Barrier options are predominantly customised and traded OTC between institutions, corporates, and sophisticated investors, rather than on standardised exchanges.3
Structural elements
Any barrier option can be described by a small set of structural parameters:
- Underlying asset: The asset from which value is derived, such as an equity, FX rate, interest rate, commodity, or index.1,3
- Option type: Call (right to buy) or put (right to sell).3
- Exercise style: Most barrier options are European-style, exercisable only at expiry. In practice, the barrier monitoring is typically continuous or at defined intervals, even though exercise itself is European.3,6
- Strike price: The price at which the underlying can be bought or sold if the option is alive at exercise.1,3
- Barrier level: The critical price of the underlying that, when touched or crossed, either activates or extinguishes the option.1,3,6
- Barrier direction:
- Barrier effect:
- Monitoring convention: Continuous monitoring (at all times) or discrete monitoring (at specific dates or times). Continuous monitoring is the canonical case in theory and common in OTC practice.
- Rebate: An optional fixed (or sometimes functional) payment that may be made if the option is knocked out, compensating the holder partly for the lost optionality.3
Types of barrier options
The main taxonomy combines direction (up/down) with effect (knock-in/knock-out), and applies to either calls or puts.1,2,3,6
1. Knock-in options
Knock-in barrier options are dormant initially and become standard options only if the underlying price crosses the barrier at some point before expiry.1,2,3,4
- Up-and-in: The option is activated only if the underlying price rises above a barrier set above the initial price.1,2,3
- Down-and-in: The option is activated only if the underlying price falls below a barrier set below the initial price.1,2,3
Once activated, a knock-in barrier option typically behaves like a vanilla European option with the same strike and expiry. If the barrier is never reached, the knock-in option expires worthless.1,3
2. Knock-out options
Knock-out options are initially alive but are extinguished immediately if the barrier is breached at any time before expiry.1,2,3,4
- Up-and-out: The option is cancelled if the underlying price rises above a barrier set above the initial price.1,3
- Down-and-out: The option is cancelled if the underlying price falls below a barrier set below the initial price.1,3
Because the option can disappear before maturity, the premium is typically lower than that of an equivalent vanilla option, all else equal.1,2,3
3. Rebate barrier options
Some barrier structures include a rebate, a pre-specified cash amount that is paid if the barrier condition is (or is not) met. For example, a knock-out option may pay a rebate when it is knocked out, offering partial compensation for the loss of the remaining optionality.3
Path dependence and payoff character
Barrier options are described as path-dependent because their payoff depends on the trajectory of the underlying price over time, not only on its value at expiry.3,6
- For a knock-in, the central question is: Was the barrier ever touched? If yes, the payoff at expiry is that of the corresponding vanilla option; if not, the payoff is zero (or a rebate if specified).
- For a knock-out, the question is: Was the barrier ever touched before expiry? If yes, the payoff is zero from that time onwards (again, possibly plus a rebate); if not, the payoff at expiry equals that of a vanilla option.1,3
Because of this path dependence, pricing and hedging barrier options require modelling not just the distribution of the underlying price at maturity, but also the probability of the price path crossing the barrier level at any time before that.3,6
Pricing: connection to Black – Scholes – Merton
The pricing of barrier options, under the classical assumptions of frictionless markets, constant volatility, and lognormal underlying dynamics, is grounded in the Black – Scholes – Merton (BSM) framework. In the BSM world, the underlying price process is often modelled as a geometric Brownian motion:
dS_t = \mu S_t \, dt + \sigma S_t \, dW_t
Under risk-neutral valuation, the drift \mu is replaced by the risk-free rate r, and the barrier option price is the discounted risk-neutral expected payoff. Closed-form expressions are available for many standard barrier structures (e.g. up-and-out or down-and-in calls and puts) under continuous monitoring, building on and extending the vanilla Black – Scholes formula.
The pricing techniques involve:
- Analytical solutions for simple, continuously monitored barriers with constant parameters, often derived via solution of the associated partial differential equation (PDE) with absorbing or activating boundary conditions at the barrier.
- Reflection principle methods for Brownian motion, which allow the derivation of hitting probabilities and related terms.
- Numerical methods (finite differences, Monte Carlo with barrier adjustments, tree methods) for more complex, discretely monitored, or path-dependent variants with time-varying barriers or stochastic volatility.
Relative to vanilla options, barrier options in the BSM model are typically cheaper because the additional condition (activation or extinction) reduces the set of scenarios in which the holder receives the full vanilla payoff.1,2,3
Strategic uses and motives
Barrier options are used across markets where participants either want finely tuned risk protection or to express a conditional view on future price movements.1,2,3,5
1. Cost-efficient hedging
- Corporates may hedge FX or interest-rate exposures using knock-out or knock-in structures to reduce premiums. For instance, a corporate worried about a sharp depreciation in a currency might buy a down-and-in put that only activates if the exchange rate falls below a critical business threshold, thereby paying less premium than for a plain vanilla put.3
- Investors may use barrier puts to protect against tail-risk events while accepting no protection for moderate moves, again in exchange for a lower upfront cost.
2. Targeted speculation
- Barrier options allow traders to express conditional views: for example, that an asset will rally, but only after breaking through a resistance level, or that a decline will occur only if a support level is breached.2,3
- Up-and-in calls or down-and-in puts are often used to express such conditional breakout scenarios.
3. Structuring and yield enhancement
- Barrier options are a staple ingredient in structured products offered by banks to clients seeking yield enhancement with contingent downside or upside features.
- For example, a range accrual, reverse convertible, or autocallable note may incorporate barriers that determine whether coupons are paid or capital is protected.
Risk characteristics
Barrier options introduce specific risks beyond those of standard options:
- Gap risk and jump risk: If the underlying price jumps across the barrier between monitoring times or overnight, the option may be suddenly knocked in or out, creating discontinuous changes in value and hedging exposure.
- Model risk: Pricing relies heavily on assumptions about volatility, barrier monitoring, and the nature of price paths. Mis-specification can lead to significant mispricing.
- Hedging complexity: Because payoff and survival depend on path, the option’s sensitivity (delta, gamma, vega) can change abruptly as the underlying approaches the barrier. This makes hedging more complex and costly compared with vanilla options.
- Liquidity risk: OTC nature and customisation mean secondary market liquidity is often limited.3
Barrier options and the Black – Scholes – Merton lineage
The natural theoretical anchor for barrier options is the Black – Scholes – Merton framework for option pricing, originally developed for vanilla European options. Although barrier options were not the primary focus of the original 1973 Black – Scholes paper or Merton’s parallel contributions, their pricing logic is an extension of the same continuous-time, arbitrage-free valuation principles.
Among the three names, Robert C. Merton is often most closely associated with the broader theoretical architecture that supports exotic options such as barriers. His work generalised the option pricing model to a much wider class of contingent claims and introduced the dynamic programming and stochastic calculus techniques that underpin modern treatment of path-dependent derivatives.
Related strategy theorist: Robert C. Merton
Biography
Robert C. Merton (born 1944) is an American economist and one of the principal architects of modern financial theory. He completed his undergraduate studies in engineering mathematics and went on to obtain a PhD in economics from MIT. Merton became a professor at MIT Sloan School of Management and later at Harvard Business School, and he is a Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences (1997), an award he shared with Myron Scholes; the prize also recognised the late Fischer Black.
Merton’s academic work profoundly shaped the fields of corporate finance, asset pricing, and risk management. His research ranges from intertemporal portfolio choice and lifecycle finance to credit-risk modelling and the design of financial institutions.
Relationship to barrier options
Barrier options sit within the class of contingent claims whose value is derived and replicated using dynamic trading strategies in the underlying and risk-free asset. Merton’s seminal contributions were crucial in making this viewpoint systematic and rigorous:
- Generalisation of option pricing: While Black and Scholes initially derived a closed-form formula for European calls on non-dividend-paying stocks, Merton generalised the theory to include dividend-paying assets, different underlying processes, and a broad family of contingent claims. This opened the door to analytical and numerical valuation of exotics such as barrier options within the same risk-neutral, no-arbitrage framework.
- PDE and boundary-condition approach: Merton formalised the use of partial differential equations to price derivatives, with appropriate boundary conditions representing contract features. Barrier options correspond to problems with absorbing or reflecting boundaries at the barrier levels, making Merton’s PDE methodology a natural tool for their analysis.
- Dynamic hedging and replication: The concept that an option’s payoff can be replicated by continuous rebalancing of a portfolio of the underlying and cash lies at the heart of both vanilla and exotic option pricing. For barrier options, hedging near the barrier is particularly delicate, and the replicating strategies draw on the same dynamic hedging logic Merton developed and popularised.
- Credit and structural models: Merton’s structural model of corporate default (treating equity as a call option on the firm’s assets and debt as a combination of riskless and short-position options) highlighted how option-like features permeate financial contracts. Barrier-type features naturally arise in such models, for instance, when default or covenant breaches are triggered by asset values crossing thresholds.
While many researchers have contributed specific closed-form solutions and numerical schemes for barrier options, the overarching conceptual framework – continuous-time stochastic modelling, risk-neutral valuation, PDE methods, and dynamic hedging – is fundamentally rooted in the Black – Scholes – Merton tradition, with Merton’s work providing critical generality and depth.
Merton’s broader influence on derivatives and strategy
Merton’s ideas significantly influenced how practitioners design and use derivatives such as barrier options in strategic contexts:
- Risk management as engineering: Merton advocated viewing financial innovation as an engineering discipline aimed at tailoring payoffs to the risk profiles and objectives of individuals and institutions. Barrier options exemplify this engineering mindset: they allow exposures to be turned on or off when critical price thresholds are reached.
- Lifecycle and institutional design: His work on lifecycle finance and pension design uses options and option-like payoffs to shape outcomes over time. Barriers and trigger conditions appear naturally in products that protect wealth only under certain macro or market conditions.
- Strategic structuring: In corporate and institutional settings, barrier features are used to align hedging and investment strategies with real-world triggers such as regulatory thresholds, solvency ratios, or budget constraints. These applications build directly on the contingent-claims analysis championed by Merton.
In this sense, although barrier options themselves are a specific exotic instrument, their conceptual foundations and strategic uses are deeply connected to Robert C. Merton’s broader contributions to continuous-time finance, option-pricing theory, and the design of financial strategies under uncertainty.
References
1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/derivatives/barrier-option/
2. https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-center/futures-and-options/what-is-barrier-option
3. https://www.strike.money/options/barrier-options
4. https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/glossary-terms/barrier-option/
5. https://www.bajajbroking.in/blog/what-is-barrier-option
6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrier_option
7. https://www.nasdaq.com/glossary/b/barrier-options
8. https://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/howison/barriers.pdf

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