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Our latest perspective - What's behind under-performing listed companies?

Outperform through the downturn

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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.

We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.

We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.

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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential

Press drew attention last year to a slew of JSE-listed companies whose share prices had collapsed over the past few years. Some were previous investor darlings. Analysis pointed to a toxic combination of decreasing earnings growth and increased leverage. While this might be a warning to investors of a company in trouble, what fundamentals drive this combination?

In our analysis, company expansion driven by the need to compensate for poor performance in their core business is a typical driver of exactly this outcome.

This article was written in January 2020 but publication was delayed due to the outbreak of Covid-19. Five months after South Africa’s first case, we update our analysis and show that core-based companies outperformed diverse peers by 29% over the period.

Management should always seek to reach full potential in their core business. Attempts to expand should be to a clearly logical set of adjacencies to which they can apply their capabilities using a repeatable business model.

In the article “Steinhoff, Tongaat, Omnia… Here’s the dead giveaway that you should have avoided these companies, says an asset manager,” (Business Insider SA, Jun 11, 2019) Helena Wasserman lists a number of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed shares that have plummeted in recent years.

In many cases these companies’ corresponding sectors have been declining. However, in most of the sectors there is at least one company that has outperformed the rest. What is it about these outperformers that distinguishes them from the rest?

The outperformers have typically shown strong financial performance – be that Growth, ROE, ROA, RONA or Asset Turnover – and varying degrees of leverage. However, performance against these metrics is by no means consistent – see our analysis.

What is consistent is that the outperformers all show clearly delineated core businesses and ongoing growth towards full potential in these businesses alongside growth into clear adjacencies that protect, enhance and leverage the core. In some cases, the core may have been or is currently being redefined, typically through gradual, step-wise extension along logical adjacencies. Redefinition is particularly important in light of the digital transformation seen in many industries. The outperformers are very seldom diversified across unrelated business segments – although isolated examples such as Bidvest clearly exist in other sectors.

Analysis of the over- and underperformers in the sectors highlighted in the article shows that those following a clear core-based strategy have typically outperformed peers through the initial months of the downturn caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.

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Strategy Tools

PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing

PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing

Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.

We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.

Read more from the original article.

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Fast Facts

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Key insights

It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.

In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.

While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.

Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.

Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.

Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.

However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.

Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.

Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.

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Selected News

Quote: Stephen Schwartzman – Blackstone Founder

Quote: Stephen Schwartzman – Blackstone Founder

“I always felt that somebody was only capable of one super effort to create something that can really be consequential. There are so many impediments to being successful. If you’re on the field, you’re there to win, and to win requires an enormous amount of practice – pushing yourself really to the breaking point.” – Stephen Schwarzman – Blackstone Founder

Stephen A. Schwarzman is a defining figure in global finance and alternative investments. He is Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative investment firm, overseeing over $1.2 trillion in assets.

Backstory and Context of the Quote

Stephen Schwarzman’s perspective on effort, practice, and success is rooted in over four decades building Blackstone from a two-person start-up to an institution that has shaped capital markets worldwide. The referenced quote captures his philosophy: that achieving anything truly consequential demands a singular, maximal effort—a philosophy he practised as Blackstone’s founder and architect.

Schwarzman began his career in mergers and acquisitions at Lehman Brothers in the 1970s, where he met Peter G. Peterson. Their complementary backgrounds—a combination of strategic vision and operational drive—empowered them to establish Blackstone in 1985, initially with just $400,000 in seed capital and a big ambition to build a differentiated investment firm. The mid-1980s financial environment, marked by booming M&A activity, provided fertile ground for innovation in buyouts and private markets.

From the outset, Schwarzman instilled a culture of rigorous preparation and discipline. A landmark early setback—the unsuccessful investment in Edgecomb Steel—became a pivotal learning event. It led Schwarzman to institutionalise robust investment committees, open and adversarial (yet respectful) debate, and a relentless process of due diligence. This learning loop, focused on not losing money and fact-based challenge culture, shaped Blackstone’s internal systems and risk culture for decades to come.

His attitude to practice, perseverance, and operating at the limit is not merely rhetorical—it is Blackstone’s operational model: selecting complex assets, professionalising management, and adding value through operational transformation before timing exits for maximum advantage. The company’s strict approval layers, multi-stage risk screening, and exacting standards demonstrate Schwarzman’s belief that only by pushing to the limits of endurance—and addressing every potential weakness—can lasting value be created.

In his own words, Schwarzman attributes success not to innate brilliance but to grit, repetition, and the ability to learn from failure. This is underscored by his leadership style, which evolved towards being gentle, clear, and principled, setting high standards while building an enduring culture based on integrity, decency, and open debate.

About Stephen A. Schwarzman

  • Born in 1947 in Philadelphia, Schwarzman studied at Yale University (where he was a member of Skull and Bones) and earned an MBA from Harvard Business School.
  • Blackstone, which he co-founded in 1985, began as an M&A boutique and now operates across private equity, real estate, credit, hedge funds, infrastructure, and life sciences, making it a recognised leader in global investment management.
  • Under Schwarzman’s leadership, Blackstone institutionalised patient, active ownership—acquiring, improving, and timing the exit from portfolio companies for optimal results while actively shaping industry standards in governance and risk management.
  • He is also known for his philanthropy, having signed The Giving Pledge and contributed significantly to education, arts, and culture.
  • His autobiography, What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence, distils the philosophy underpinning his business and personal success.
  • Schwarzman’s role as a public intellectual and advisor has seen him listed among the “World’s Most Powerful People” and “Time 100 Most Influential People”.

Leading Theorists and Intellectual Currents Related to the Quote

The themes embodied in Schwarzman’s philosophy—singular effort, practice to breaking point, coping with setbacks, and building institutional culture—draw on and intersect with several influential theorists and schools of thought in management and the psychology of high achievement:

  • Anders Ericsson (Deliberate Practice): Ericsson’s research underscores that deliberate practice—extended, focused effort with ongoing feedback—is critical to acquiring expert performance in any field. Schwarzman’s stress on “enormous amount of practice” parallels Ericsson’s findings that natural talent is far less important than methodical, sustained effort.
  • Angela Duckworth (Grit): Duckworth’s work on “grit” emphasises passion and perseverance for long-term goals as key predictors of success. Her research supports Schwarzman’s belief that breaking through obstacles—and continuing after setbacks—is fundamental for consequential achievement.
  • Carol Dweck (Growth Mindset): Dweck demonstrated that embracing a “growth mindset”—seeing failures as opportunities to learn rather than as endpoints—fosters resilience and continuous improvement. Schwarzman’s approach to institutionalising learning from failure at Blackstone reflects this theoretical foundation.
  • Peter Drucker (Management by Objectives and Institutional Culture): Drucker highlighted the importance of clear organisational goals, continuous learning, and leadership by values for building enduring institutions. Schwarzman’s insistence on codifying culture, open debate, and aligning every decision with the brand reflects Drucker’s emphasis on the importance of system and culture in organisational performance.
  • Jim Collins (Built to Last, Good to Great): Collins’ research into successful companies found a common thread of fanatical discipline, a culture of humility and rigorous debate, all driven by a sense of purpose. These elements are present throughout Blackstone’s governance model and leadership ethos as steered by Schwarzman.
  • Michael Porter (Competitive Strategy): Porter’s concept of sustained competitive advantage through unique positioning and strategic differentiation is echoed in Blackstone’s approach—actively improving operations rather than simply relying on market exposure, and committing to ‘winning’ through operational and structural edge.

Summary

Schwarzman’s quote is not only a personal reflection but also a distillation of enduring principles in high achievement and institutional leadership. It is the lived experience of building Blackstone—a case study in dedication, resilience, and the institutionalisation of excellence. His story, and the theoretical underpinnings echoed in his approach, provide a template for excellence and consequence in any field marked by complexity, competition, and the need for sustained, high-conviction effort.

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