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Outperform through the downturn
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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential
Press drew attention last year to a slew of JSE-listed companies whose share prices had collapsed over the past few years. Some were previous investor darlings. Analysis pointed to a toxic combination of decreasing earnings growth and increased leverage. While this might be a warning to investors of a company in trouble, what fundamentals drive this combination?
In our analysis, company expansion driven by the need to compensate for poor performance in their core business is a typical driver of exactly this outcome.
This article was written in January 2020 but publication was delayed due to the outbreak of Covid-19. Five months after South Africa’s first case, we update our analysis and show that core-based companies outperformed diverse peers by 29% over the period.
Management should always seek to reach full potential in their core business. Attempts to expand should be to a clearly logical set of adjacencies to which they can apply their capabilities using a repeatable business model.
In the article “Steinhoff, Tongaat, Omnia… Here’s the dead giveaway that you should have avoided these companies, says an asset manager,” (Business Insider SA, Jun 11, 2019) Helena Wasserman lists a number of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed shares that have plummeted in recent years.
In many cases these companies’ corresponding sectors have been declining. However, in most of the sectors there is at least one company that has outperformed the rest. What is it about these outperformers that distinguishes them from the rest?
The outperformers have typically shown strong financial performance – be that Growth, ROE, ROA, RONA or Asset Turnover – and varying degrees of leverage. However, performance against these metrics is by no means consistent – see our analysis.
What is consistent is that the outperformers all show clearly delineated core businesses and ongoing growth towards full potential in these businesses alongside growth into clear adjacencies that protect, enhance and leverage the core. In some cases, the core may have been or is currently being redefined, typically through gradual, step-wise extension along logical adjacencies. Redefinition is particularly important in light of the digital transformation seen in many industries. The outperformers are very seldom diversified across unrelated business segments – although isolated examples such as Bidvest clearly exist in other sectors.
Analysis of the over- and underperformers in the sectors highlighted in the article shows that those following a clear core-based strategy have typically outperformed peers through the initial months of the downturn caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Strategy Tools
Quote: James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton
“I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” – James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton
James Carville’s famous quip speaks volumes about the immense, often unseen power wielded by the bond market over governments and economies. This power was vividly demonstrated in early April 2025, when a dramatic clash between US policy decisions and market forces played out.
The April 2025 Treasury Market Turmoil and Tariff Reversal:
In early April 2025, the Trump administration announced a set of aggressive new tariffs, including broad “reciprocal” tariffs targeting numerous trading partners. The reaction in financial markets was swift and severe. While stock markets tumbled, the real drama unfolded in the US Treasury market – typically considered the world’s ultimate safe haven.
Beginning Tuesday, April 8th, and intensifying overnight into Wednesday, April 9th, Treasury bonds experienced a sharp sell-off. This wasn’t the usual inverse relationship where bonds rally when stocks fall due to recession fears. Instead, both asset classes plunged simultaneously, a rare and alarming pattern previously seen during the acute phase of the COVID-19 panic in March 2020.
Yields on US Treasuries soared. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped by over 60 basis points (0.60 percentage points) in less than 48 hours, briefly touching 4.51% on Wednesday. The 30-year yield even breached the 5% mark. This surge in US borrowing costs rippled globally, pushing yields higher in the UK and Japan.
Several factors fueled this bond market rout:
- Policy Uncertainty & Inflation Fears: The new tariffs raised immediate concerns about escalating trade wars, potential retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and ultimately, higher inflation, which erodes the value of fixed bond payments.
- Weak Auction Demand: An auction for 3-year Treasury notes on Tuesday, April 8th, met with weak demand, signalling investor nervousness and contributing to the upward pressure on yields across all maturities.
- Technical Unwinding: The sudden spike in volatility triggered margin calls for highly leveraged hedge fund strategies built around Treasuries. Funds were forced to rapidly sell Treasuries to raise cash and reduce risk, creating a downward spiral in prices (and upward spiral in yields). Key trades affected included:
- Basis Trades: Bets on tiny price differences between Treasury bonds and futures contracts, often leveraged 50-100 times. Unwinding these trades, estimated to involve hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars, forced large-scale Treasury sales.
- Swap Spread Trades: Bets on the relationship between Treasury yields and interest rate swap rates. Recent volatility forced an unwind here too, exacerbating the sell-off.
- Off-the-Run Trades: Exploiting small yield differences between newly issued (“on-the-run”) and older (“off-the-run”) Treasuries. Widening spreads indicated stress and forced selling.
- Safe Haven Concerns: The simultaneous fall in stocks and bonds led analysts like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to suggest a “generalized aversion to US assets,” questioning the traditional safe-haven status of Treasuries. Speculation, though unproven, arose about whether major holders like China might be selling Treasuries in retaliation.
The speed and severity of the Treasury sell-off raised fears of systemic risk – a potential market freeze-up similar to March 2020, which could necessitate emergency intervention by the Federal Reserve. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to calm nerves, describing it as an “uncomfortable but normal deleveraging,” the pressure became undeniable.
President Trump himself acknowledged watching the bond market and noted people “were getting yippy.” Faced with this intense market pressure, the administration abruptly reversed course on Wednesday, April 9th, announcing a withdrawal or “90-day pause” on the most controversial “reciprocal” tariffs, though other tariffs remained.
While the stock market celebrated with a relief rally, Treasury yields remained elevated, reflecting lingering uncertainty. The episode served as a stark reminder: the bond market, through the collective actions of countless global investors reacting to perceived risks, could indeed “intimidate” and force a rapid change in government policy.
How Bond Trading Works:
At its core, a bond is a loan made by an investor to a borrower (like a government or corporation). The borrower pays periodic interest (coupon) and repays the principal amount at maturity.
- Issuance: Governments (like the US Treasury) issue bonds to finance spending. They sell these bonds through auctions.
- Trading: After issuance, bonds trade in the secondary market. Investors buy and sell bonds based on their views on interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and the creditworthiness of the issuer.
- Price and Yield: Bond prices and yields (the effective interest rate) move inversely. When demand for a bond increases, its price goes up, and its yield goes down. When investors sell bonds, prices fall, and yields rise. Rising yields mean higher borrowing costs for the issuer.
- US Treasuries: The market for US Treasury bonds is the largest and most liquid in the world. Treasury yields are a benchmark for interest rates globally and are crucial for pricing other financial assets. They are also widely used as collateral in other financial transactions (like repo loans).
- Leverage and Complex Trades: As seen in the April 2025 event, sophisticated investors like hedge funds often use leverage (borrowed money, often via the repo market using Treasuries as collateral) to amplify returns from small price discrepancies between related instruments (e.g., cash bonds vs. futures, on-the-run vs. off-the-run bonds, bonds vs. swaps). While these trades can enhance market liquidity, the high leverage makes them vulnerable to sudden volatility, potentially triggering forced selling and market disruption.
Who is James Carville and Why He Said This:
James Carville, nicknamed the “Ragin’ Cajun,” is a prominent American political consultant and strategist, best known for masterminding Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign. He is famous for his sharp wit, populist messaging, and coining the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” which became the unofficial slogan of the Clinton campaign, emphasizing the focus needed to win the election during an economic recession.
Carville made the remark about wanting to “come back as the bond market” likely during the early 1990s. At that time, the Clinton administration faced significant pressure from the bond market regarding the national debt and budget deficits. The term “bond vigilantes” was often used to describe investors who would sell government bonds (thus driving up interest rates and borrowing costs) if they disapproved of a government’s fiscal policies, effectively forcing policymakers towards austerity or deficit reduction.
Carville’s quote perfectly captures the frustration and awe politicians often feel towards the faceless, powerful entity that is the global bond market. Unlike voters or political opponents, the bond market operates on cold calculation of risk and return. Its judgments, expressed through buying and selling that moves yields, can impose discipline and constraints on governments far more effectively, and often more intimidatingly, than any political force. The events of April 2025 showed this power remains profoundly relevant.
Fast Facts
Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough
Key insights
It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.
In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.
While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.
Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.
Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.
Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.
However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.
Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.
Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.
Selected News
Quote: James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton
“I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” – James Carville, Former political adviser to President Bill Clinton
James Carville’s famous quip speaks volumes about the immense, often unseen power wielded by the bond market over governments and economies. This power was vividly demonstrated in early April 2025, when a dramatic clash between US policy decisions and market forces played out.
The April 2025 Treasury Market Turmoil and Tariff Reversal:
In early April 2025, the Trump administration announced a set of aggressive new tariffs, including broad “reciprocal” tariffs targeting numerous trading partners. The reaction in financial markets was swift and severe. While stock markets tumbled, the real drama unfolded in the US Treasury market – typically considered the world’s ultimate safe haven.
Beginning Tuesday, April 8th, and intensifying overnight into Wednesday, April 9th, Treasury bonds experienced a sharp sell-off. This wasn’t the usual inverse relationship where bonds rally when stocks fall due to recession fears. Instead, both asset classes plunged simultaneously, a rare and alarming pattern previously seen during the acute phase of the COVID-19 panic in March 2020.
Yields on US Treasuries soared. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped by over 60 basis points (0.60 percentage points) in less than 48 hours, briefly touching 4.51% on Wednesday. The 30-year yield even breached the 5% mark. This surge in US borrowing costs rippled globally, pushing yields higher in the UK and Japan.
Several factors fueled this bond market rout:
- Policy Uncertainty & Inflation Fears: The new tariffs raised immediate concerns about escalating trade wars, potential retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and ultimately, higher inflation, which erodes the value of fixed bond payments.
- Weak Auction Demand: An auction for 3-year Treasury notes on Tuesday, April 8th, met with weak demand, signalling investor nervousness and contributing to the upward pressure on yields across all maturities.
- Technical Unwinding: The sudden spike in volatility triggered margin calls for highly leveraged hedge fund strategies built around Treasuries. Funds were forced to rapidly sell Treasuries to raise cash and reduce risk, creating a downward spiral in prices (and upward spiral in yields). Key trades affected included:
- Basis Trades: Bets on tiny price differences between Treasury bonds and futures contracts, often leveraged 50-100 times. Unwinding these trades, estimated to involve hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars, forced large-scale Treasury sales.
- Swap Spread Trades: Bets on the relationship between Treasury yields and interest rate swap rates. Recent volatility forced an unwind here too, exacerbating the sell-off.
- Off-the-Run Trades: Exploiting small yield differences between newly issued (“on-the-run”) and older (“off-the-run”) Treasuries. Widening spreads indicated stress and forced selling.
- Safe Haven Concerns: The simultaneous fall in stocks and bonds led analysts like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to suggest a “generalized aversion to US assets,” questioning the traditional safe-haven status of Treasuries. Speculation, though unproven, arose about whether major holders like China might be selling Treasuries in retaliation.
The speed and severity of the Treasury sell-off raised fears of systemic risk – a potential market freeze-up similar to March 2020, which could necessitate emergency intervention by the Federal Reserve. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to calm nerves, describing it as an “uncomfortable but normal deleveraging,” the pressure became undeniable.
President Trump himself acknowledged watching the bond market and noted people “were getting yippy.” Faced with this intense market pressure, the administration abruptly reversed course on Wednesday, April 9th, announcing a withdrawal or “90-day pause” on the most controversial “reciprocal” tariffs, though other tariffs remained.
While the stock market celebrated with a relief rally, Treasury yields remained elevated, reflecting lingering uncertainty. The episode served as a stark reminder: the bond market, through the collective actions of countless global investors reacting to perceived risks, could indeed “intimidate” and force a rapid change in government policy.
How Bond Trading Works:
At its core, a bond is a loan made by an investor to a borrower (like a government or corporation). The borrower pays periodic interest (coupon) and repays the principal amount at maturity.
- Issuance: Governments (like the US Treasury) issue bonds to finance spending. They sell these bonds through auctions.
- Trading: After issuance, bonds trade in the secondary market. Investors buy and sell bonds based on their views on interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and the creditworthiness of the issuer.
- Price and Yield: Bond prices and yields (the effective interest rate) move inversely. When demand for a bond increases, its price goes up, and its yield goes down. When investors sell bonds, prices fall, and yields rise. Rising yields mean higher borrowing costs for the issuer.
- US Treasuries: The market for US Treasury bonds is the largest and most liquid in the world. Treasury yields are a benchmark for interest rates globally and are crucial for pricing other financial assets. They are also widely used as collateral in other financial transactions (like repo loans).
- Leverage and Complex Trades: As seen in the April 2025 event, sophisticated investors like hedge funds often use leverage (borrowed money, often via the repo market using Treasuries as collateral) to amplify returns from small price discrepancies between related instruments (e.g., cash bonds vs. futures, on-the-run vs. off-the-run bonds, bonds vs. swaps). While these trades can enhance market liquidity, the high leverage makes them vulnerable to sudden volatility, potentially triggering forced selling and market disruption.
Who is James Carville and Why He Said This:
James Carville, nicknamed the “Ragin’ Cajun,” is a prominent American political consultant and strategist, best known for masterminding Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign. He is famous for his sharp wit, populist messaging, and coining the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” which became the unofficial slogan of the Clinton campaign, emphasizing the focus needed to win the election during an economic recession.
Carville made the remark about wanting to “come back as the bond market” likely during the early 1990s. At that time, the Clinton administration faced significant pressure from the bond market regarding the national debt and budget deficits. The term “bond vigilantes” was often used to describe investors who would sell government bonds (thus driving up interest rates and borrowing costs) if they disapproved of a government’s fiscal policies, effectively forcing policymakers towards austerity or deficit reduction.
Carville’s quote perfectly captures the frustration and awe politicians often feel towards the faceless, powerful entity that is the global bond market. Unlike voters or political opponents, the bond market operates on cold calculation of risk and return. Its judgments, expressed through buying and selling that moves yields, can impose discipline and constraints on governments far more effectively, and often more intimidatingly, than any political force. The events of April 2025 showed this power remains profoundly relevant.
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