5 Jun 2016

What is the ‘Delphi Method’
A forecasting method based on the results of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds. Because multiple rounds of questions are asked and because each member of the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi Method seeks to reach the “correct” response through consensus.

The word “Delphi” refers to the Oracle of Delphi , a site in Greek mythology where prophecies were passed on.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Delphi Method’
The Delphi Method seeks to aggregate opinions from a diverse set of experts, and can be done without having to bring everyone together for a physical meeting. Because the responses of the participants are anonymous, individual panelists don’t have to worry about repercussions for their opinions. Consensus can be reached over time as opinions are swayed.

Covid-19 – Johns Hopkins University

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