“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” – Roy Amara, Stanford computer scientist
Roy Ralph Amara (1936–2001) was an American computer scientist, futurist, and social critic. He was a pioneer in the field of technology forecasting and known for his work at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI International).
Early Life and Career
Amara was born in New York City and earned a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from MIT. He joined SRI International in 1965, where he worked on various projects related to artificial intelligence and technology forecasting. Amara became known for his insightful and often controversial predictions about the future of technology and its impact on society.
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Amara is best known for coining the term “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” which describes how the rate of technological change accelerates over time, leading to exponential growth in capabilities. This concept is famously referenced by Ray Kurzweil in his book “The Singularity Is Near.” Amara’s quote about overestimating short-term and underestimating long-term impacts is a key aspect of this law.
Key Teachings
- Technological Change: Amara emphasized the rapid pace of technological change and its profound impact on society, business, and culture. He believed that organizations and individuals must adapt quickly to stay relevant.
- Future Forecasting: His work in technology forecasting helped businesses and governments understand the potential of emerging technologies and plan for their future impacts.
Social Impact: Amara also explored the social and ethical implications of technological advancements, advocating for responsible innovation and use of technology.
Impact and Legacy
Amara’s contributions to technology forecasting and futurism have had a lasting impact on various fields, including business strategy, urban planning, and public policy. His work continues to influence researchers and practitioners who seek to understand and manage the rapid pace of technological change.
Bill Gates and Others
Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, has cited Amara’s Law in his discussions about technology trends. Gates noted that Amara’s insight into the accelerating nature of technological progress is crucial for understanding the future of computing and software development. Other futurists and tech leaders have also referenced Amara’s work to emphasize the importance of long-term planning and adaptability in a rapidly changing technological landscape.
Personal Life
Amara was married to fellow futurist and social critic, Danielle Amayo. He passed away in 2001 at the age of 64, leaving behind a rich legacy of insights into the future of technology and society.
