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Our latest perspective - What's behind under-performing listed companies?

Outperform through the downturn

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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.

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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Outperforming through the downturn AND the cost of ignoring full potential

Press drew attention last year to a slew of JSE-listed companies whose share prices had collapsed over the past few years. Some were previous investor darlings. Analysis pointed to a toxic combination of decreasing earnings growth and increased leverage. While this might be a warning to investors of a company in trouble, what fundamentals drive this combination?

In our analysis, company expansion driven by the need to compensate for poor performance in their core business is a typical driver of exactly this outcome.

This article was written in January 2020 but publication was delayed due to the outbreak of Covid-19. Five months after South Africa’s first case, we update our analysis and show that core-based companies outperformed diverse peers by 29% over the period.

Management should always seek to reach full potential in their core business. Attempts to expand should be to a clearly logical set of adjacencies to which they can apply their capabilities using a repeatable business model.

In the article “Steinhoff, Tongaat, Omnia… Here’s the dead giveaway that you should have avoided these companies, says an asset manager,” (Business Insider SA, Jun 11, 2019) Helena Wasserman lists a number of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed shares that have plummeted in recent years.

In many cases these companies’ corresponding sectors have been declining. However, in most of the sectors there is at least one company that has outperformed the rest. What is it about these outperformers that distinguishes them from the rest?

The outperformers have typically shown strong financial performance – be that Growth, ROE, ROA, RONA or Asset Turnover – and varying degrees of leverage. However, performance against these metrics is by no means consistent – see our analysis.

What is consistent is that the outperformers all show clearly delineated core businesses and ongoing growth towards full potential in these businesses alongside growth into clear adjacencies that protect, enhance and leverage the core. In some cases, the core may have been or is currently being redefined, typically through gradual, step-wise extension along logical adjacencies. Redefinition is particularly important in light of the digital transformation seen in many industries. The outperformers are very seldom diversified across unrelated business segments – although isolated examples such as Bidvest clearly exist in other sectors.

Analysis of the over- and underperformers in the sectors highlighted in the article shows that those following a clear core-based strategy have typically outperformed peers through the initial months of the downturn caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.

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Strategy Tools

PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing

PODCAST: Effective Transfer Pricing

Our Spotify podcast discusses how to get transfer pricing right.

We discuss effective transfer pricing within organizations, highlighting the prevalent challenges and proposing solutions. The core issue is that poorly implemented internal pricing leads to suboptimal economic decisions, resource allocation problems, and interdepartmental conflict. The hosts advocate for market-based pricing over cost recovery, emphasizing the importance of clear price signals for efficient resource allocation and accurate decision-making. They stress the need for service level agreements, fair cost allocation, and a comprehensive process to manage the political and emotional aspects of internal pricing, ultimately aiming for improved organizational performance and profitability. The podcast includes case studies illustrating successful implementations and the authors’ expertise in this field.

Read more from the original article.

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Fast Facts

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Fast Fact: Great returns aren’t enough

Key insights

It’s not enough to just have great returns – top-line growth is just as critical.

In fact, S&P 500 investors rewarded high-growth companies more than high-ROIC companies over the past decade.

While the distinction was less clear on the JSE, what is clear is that getting a balance of growth and returns is critical.

Strong and consistent ROIC or RONA performers provide investors with a steady flow of discounted cash flows – without growth effectively a fixed-income instrument.

Improvements in ROIC through margin improvements, efficiencies and working-capital optimisation provide point-in-time uplifts to share price.

Top-line growth presents a compounding mechanism – ROIC (and improvements) are compounded each year leading to on-going increases in share price.

However, without acceptable levels of ROIC, the benefits of compounding will be subdued and share price appreciation will be depressed – and when ROIC is below WACC value will be destroyed.

Maintaining high levels of growth is not as sustainable as maintaining high levels of ROIC – while both typically decline as industries mature, growth is usually more affected.

Getting the right balance between ROIC and growth is critical to optimising shareholder value.

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Selected News

Quote: Alex Karp – Palantir CEO

Quote: Alex Karp – Palantir CEO

“The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is batsh*t crazy.” – Alex Karp -Palantir CEO

Alex Karp, co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies, delivered the now widely-circulated statement, “The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is batsh*t crazy,” in response to famed investor Michael Burry’s high-profile short positions against both Palantir and Nvidia. This sharp retort came at a time when Palantir, an enterprise software and artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse, had just reported record earnings and was under intense media scrutiny for its meteoric stock rise and valuation.

Context of the Quote

The remark was made in early November 2025 during a CNBC interview, following public disclosures that Michael Burry—of “The Big Short” fame—had taken massive short positions in Palantir and Nvidia, two companies at the heart of the AI revolution. Burry’s move, reminiscent of his contrarian bets during the 2008 financial crisis, was interpreted by the market as both a challenge to the soaring “AI trade” and a critique of the underlying economics fueling the sector’s explosive growth.

Karp’s frustration was palpable: not only was Palantir producing what he described as “anomalous” financial results—outpacing virtually all competitors in growth, cash flow, and customer retention—but it was also emerging as the backbone of data-driven operations across government and industry. For Karp, Burry’s short bet went beyond traditional market scepticism; it targeted firms, products (“chips” and “ontology”—the foundational hardware for AI and the architecture for structuring knowledge), and business models proven to be both technically indispensable and commercially robust. Karp’s rejection of the “short chips and ontology” thesis underscores his belief in the enduring centrality of the technologies underpinning the modern AI stack.

Backstory and Profile: Alex Karp

Alex Karp stands out as one of Silicon Valley’s true iconoclasts:

  • Background and Education: Born in New York City in 1967, Karp holds a philosophy degree from Haverford College, a JD from Stanford, and a PhD in social theory from Goethe University Frankfurt, where he studied under and wrote about the influential philosopher Jürgen Habermas. This rare academic pedigree—blending law, philosophy, and critical theory—deeply informs both his contrarian mindset and his focus on the societal impact of technology.
  • Professional Arc: Before founding Palantir in 2004 with Peter Thiel and others, Karp had forged a career in finance, running the London-based Caedmon Group. At Palantir, he crafted a unique culture and business model, combining a wellness-oriented, sometimes spiritual corporate environment with the hard-nosed delivery of mission-critical systems for Western security, defence, and industry.
  • Leadership and Philosophy: Karp is known for his outspoken, unconventional leadership. Unafraid to challenge both Silicon Valley’s libertarian ethos and what he views as the groupthink of academic and financial “expert” classes, he publicly identifies as progressive—yet separates himself from establishment politics, remaining both a supporter of the US military and a critic of mainstream left and right ideologies. His style is at once brash and philosophical, combining deep skepticism of market orthodoxy with a strong belief in the capacity of technology to deliver real-world, not just notional, value.
  • Palantir’s Rise: Under Karp, Palantir grew from a niche contractor to one of the world’s most important data analytics and AI companies. Palantir’s products are deeply embedded in national security, commercial analytics, and industrial operations, making the company essential infrastructure in the rapidly evolving AI economy.

Theoretical Background: ‘Chips’ and ‘Ontology’

Karp’s phrase pairs two of the foundational concepts in modern AI and data-driven enterprise:

  • Chips: Here, “chips” refers specifically to advanced semiconductors (such as Nvidia’s GPUs) that provide the computational horsepower essential for training and deploying cutting-edge machine learning models. The AI revolution is inseparable from advances in chip design, leading to historic demand for high-performance hardware.
  • Ontology: In computer and information science, “ontology” describes the formal structuring and categorising of knowledge—making data comprehensible, searchable, and actionable by algorithms. Robust ontologies enable organisations to unify disparate data sources, automate analytical reasoning, and achieve the “second order” efficiencies of AI at scale.

Leading theorists in the domain of ontology and AI include:

  • John McCarthy: A founder of artificial intelligence, McCarthy’s foundational work on formal logic and semantics laid groundwork for modern ontological structures in AI.
  • Tim Berners-Lee: Creator of the World Wide Web, Berners-Lee developed the Semantic Web, championing knowledge structuring via ontologies—enabling data to be machine-readable and all but indispensable for AI’s next leap.
  • Thomas Gruber: Known for his widely cited definition of ontology in AI as “a specification of a conceptualisation,” Gruber’s research shaped the field’s approach to standardising knowledge representations for complex applications.

In the chip space, the pioneering work of:

  • Jensen Huang: CEO and co-founder of Nvidia, drove the company’s transformation from graphics to AI acceleration, cementing the centrality of chips as the hardware substrate for everything from generative AI to advanced analytics.
  • Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce: Their early explorations in semiconductor fabrication set the stage for the exponential hardware progress that enabled the modern AI era.

Insightful Context for the Modern Market Debate

The “chips and ontology” remark reflects a deep divide in contemporary technology investing:

  • On one side, sceptics like Burry see signs of speculative excess, reminiscent of prior bubbles, and bet against companies with high valuations—even when those companies dominate core technologies fundamental to AI.
  • On the other, leaders like Karp argue that while the broad “AI trade” risks pockets of overvaluation, the engine—the computational hardware (chips) and data-structuring logic (ontology)—are not just durable, but irreplaceable in the digital economy.

With Palantir and Nvidia at the centre of the current AI-driven transformation, Karp’s comment captures not just a rebuttal to market short-termism, but a broader endorsement of the foundational technologies that define the coming decade. The value of “chips and ontology” is, in Karp’s eyes, anchored not in market narrative but in empirical results and business necessity—a perspective rooted in a unique synthesis of philosophy, technology, and radical pragmatism.

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