“Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous. Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war.” – The Economist
The Economist states that “Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous. Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war.”1
This quote from their 22 March 2026 article highlights severe risks to global energy markets due to the Iran war. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15-20% of world oil supply passes, are driving up oil and natural gas prices.1 Attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s LNG facilities add to supply fears, potentially pushing Brent crude to $100 per barrel or higher.1,2
Analysts note that prolonged conflict could embed a risk premium in prices, with lasting impacts on inflation, GDP, and sectors like tourism in Gulf states such as Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.1,2 Even short-term shocks may chill economic activity, as higher energy costs raise business and consumer expenses worldwide.1
Recent market movements show volatility: Brent crude hit $119 before retreating to around $105-107, with WTI at $94, reflecting uncertainty over escalation.2 Regions like Asia (Bangladesh, Philippines, Pakistan) are already implementing energy conservation measures.2
Key concerns include:
- Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, potentially unfixable in weeks, leading to long-term supply shortages.2
- Closure risks in the Strait of Hormuz, crippling exports for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE.1,2
- Higher inflation and reduced global economic activity, regardless of war duration.1
While some hope for a quick resolution under leaders like Trump and Netanyahu, experts warn the worst-case scenario grows more likely with escalation.1,2
References
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw5K6x-YVo8
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVceAzO-Uo8
