Due Diligence

“If investors do not know or never attempt to know the fair value, they can pay any price. More often, the price they pay is far greater than the actual value.” – Naved Abdali – Investor, noted commentator

Naved Abdali is an investor and noted commentator on investment theory, recognised for his clarity on the psychological underpinnings of market behaviour and the critical role of value discipline in investment. Abdali’s work often addresses the emotional and behavioural biases that cloud investor judgment and drive irrational market actions. He is regularly quoted within wealth management and financial advisory circles, known for incisive observations such as, “Fear of missing out single-handedly caused every single investment bubble in human history,” encapsulating the dangers of herd mentality. His commentaries serve as cautions against speculation and emotional investing, instead advocating for rigorous analysis of fair value as the bedrock of sound investment decisions.

The context for Abdali’s quote emerges directly from the experience of market exuberance and subsequent corrections, where investors—neglectful of intrinsic value—end up relying on price momentum or social proof, often to their detriment. Investment bubbles such as the South Sea Bubble, the dot-com craze, or more recently the cryptocurrency surges, illustrate the dangers Abdali highlights: when valuation discipline is abandoned, mispricing becomes endemic and losses are inevitable once euphoria subsides. Abdali’s body of work persistently returns to the principle that sustainable investing relies on understanding what an asset is truly worth, rather than merely what the market is willing to pay at any given moment.

The sentiment articulated by Abdali draws from, and stands alongside, a tradition of value-focused investment theorists whose work underlines the necessity of fair value assessment:

• Benjamin Graham is widely regarded as the father of value investing. His seminal works “Security Analysis” (1934) and “The Intelligent Investor” (1949) introduced the concept of intrinsic value and the importance of a margin of safety, laying the groundwork for generations of disciplined investors. Graham taught that markets are often irrational in the short term, but over the long term, fundamentals dictate outcomes—a direct precursor to Abdali’s caution against ignoring value.

• David Dodd, Graham’s collaborator, helped refine the analytic framework underpinning value investing, particularly in distinguishing between price (what you pay) and value (what you get).

• Warren Buffett, Graham’s most famed student, popularised these principles and demonstrated their efficacy throughout his career at Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett consistently emphasises that “price is what you pay; value is what you get,” underscoring the risk Abdali outlines: without a clear understanding of value, investors surrender themselves to market whims.

• John Maynard Keynes offered early insights into the speculative aspect of markets, observing that investors frequently anticipate what other investors might do, rather than focus on fundamental value, an idea implicit in Abdali’s observations on the role of psychology and market sentiment.

• Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, extended the argument to personal finance, advocating for simplicity, discipline, and a focus on underlying fundamentals rather than chasing trends or returns—a stance closely aligned with Abdali’s emphasis on resisting emotional investing.

These theorists, like Abdali, illuminate the pernicious effects of cognitive bias, speculation, and herd behaviour. They collectively advance a framework where investment success depends on the dispassionate appraisal of fair value, rather than market noise. Abdali’s contributions, particularly the quote above, encapsulate and renew this foundational insight: disciplined valuation is the only safeguard in a marketplace where emotion is ever-present, and value is too easily overlooked.