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Global Advisors: a consulting leader in defining quantified strategy, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions, achieving measureable results.

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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.

We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.

We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.

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Thoughts

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Leading a deliberate life

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Leading a deliberate life

By Marc Wilson
Marc is a partner at Global Advisors and based in Johannesburg, South Africa

Download this article at https://globaladvisors.biz/blog/2018/06/26/leading-a-deliberate-life/.

Picket fences. Family of four. Management position.

Mid-life crisis. Meaning. Purpose.

Someone once said that, “At 18, I had all the answers. At 35, I realised I didn’t know the question.”

Serendipity has a lot going for it. Many people might sail through life taking what comes and enjoying the moment. Others might be open to chance and have nothing go right for them.

Some people might strive to achieve, realise rare successes and be bitterly unhappy. Others might be driven and enjoy incredible success and fulfilment.

Perhaps the majority of us become beholden to the momentum of our lives.

We might study, start a career, marry, buy a dream house, have children, send them to a top school. Those steps make up components of many of our dreams. They are steps that may define each subsequent choice. As I discussed this with a friend recently, he remarked that few of these steps had been subject of deliberations in his life – increasingly these steps were the outcome of momentum. Each will shape every step he takes for the rest of his life. He would not have things any other way, but if he knew what he knows now, he might have been more deliberate about choice and consequence…..

Read more at https://globaladvisors.biz/blog/2018/06/26/leading-a-deliberate-life/

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Strategy Tools

PODCAST: Strategy Tools: Growth, Profit or Returns?

PODCAST: Strategy Tools: Growth, Profit or Returns?

Our Spotify podcast explores the relationship between Return on Net Assets (RONA) and growth, arguing that both are essential for shareholder value creation. The hosts contend that focusing solely on one metric can be detrimental, and propose a framework for evaluating business portfolios based on their RONA and growth profiles. This approach involves plotting business units on a “market-cap curve” to identify value-accretive and value-destructive segments.

The podcast also addresses the impact of economic downturns on portfolio management, suggesting strategies for both offensive and defensive approaches. The core argument is that companies should aim to achieve a balance between RONA and growth, acknowledging that both are essential for long-term shareholder value creation.

Read more from the original article – https://globaladvisors.biz/2020/08/04/strategy-tools-growth-profit-or-returns/

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Fast Facts

Selected News

Term: Loss function

Term: Loss function

“A loss function, also known as a cost function, is a mathematical function that quantifies the difference between a model’s predicted output and the actual ‘ground truth’ value for a given input.” – Loss function

A loss function is a mathematical function that quantifies the discrepancy between a model’s predicted output and the actual ground truth value for a given input. Also referred to as an error function or cost function, it serves as the objective function that machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms seek to optimize during training efforts.

Core Purpose and Function

The loss function operates as a feedback mechanism within machine learning systems. When a model makes a prediction, the loss function calculates a numerical value representing the prediction error-the gap between what the model predicted and what actually occurred. This error quantification is fundamental to the learning process. During training, algorithms such as backpropagation use the gradient of the loss function with respect to the model’s parameters to iteratively adjust weights and biases, progressively reducing the loss and improving predictive accuracy.

The relationship between loss function and cost function warrants clarification: whilst these terms are often used interchangeably, a loss function technically applies to a single training example, whereas a cost function typically represents the average loss across an entire dataset or batch. Both, however, serve the same essential purpose of guiding model optimization.

Key Roles in Machine Learning

Loss functions fulfil several critical functions within machine learning systems:

  • Performance measurement: Loss functions provide a quantitative metric to evaluate how well a model’s predictions align with actual results, enabling objective assessment of model effectiveness.
  • Optimization guidance: By calculating prediction error, loss functions direct the learning algorithm to adjust parameters iteratively, creating a clear path toward improved predictions.
  • Bias-variance balance: Effective loss functions help balance model bias (oversimplification) and variance (overfitting), essential for generalisation to new, unseen data.
  • Training signal: The gradient of the loss function provides the signal by which learning algorithms update model weights during backpropagation.

Common Loss Function Types

Different machine learning tasks require different loss functions. For regression problems involving continuous numerical predictions, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are widely employed. The MAE formula is:

\text{MAE} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left| y_i - \hat{y}_i \right|

For classification tasks dealing with categorical data, Binary Cross-Entropy (also called Log Loss) is commonly used for binary classification problems. The formula is:

L(y, f(x)) = -[y \cdot \log(f(x)) + (1 - y) \cdot \log(1 - f(x))]

where y represents the true binary label (0 or 1) and f(x) is the predicted probability of the positive class.

For multi-class classification, Categorical Cross-Entropy extends this concept. Additionally, Hinge Loss is particularly useful in binary classification where clear separation between classes is desired:

L(y, f(x)) = \max(0, 1 - y \cdot f(x))

The Huber Loss function provides robustness to outliers by combining quadratic and linear components, switching between them based on a threshold parameter delta (?).

Related Strategy Theorist: Vladimir Vapnik

Vladimir Naumovich Vapnik (born 1935) stands as a foundational figure in the theoretical underpinnings of loss functions and machine learning optimisation. A Soviet and later American computer scientist, Vapnik’s work on Statistical Learning Theory and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) fundamentally shaped how the machine learning community understands loss functions and their role in model generalisation.

Vapnik’s most significant contribution to loss function theory came through his development of Support Vector Machines in the 1990s, where he introduced the concept of the hinge loss function-a loss function specifically designed to maximise the margin between classification boundaries. This represented a paradigm shift in thinking about loss functions: rather than simply minimising prediction error, Vapnik’s approach emphasised confidence and margin, ensuring models were not merely correct but confidently correct by a specified distance.

Born in the Soviet Union, Vapnik studied mathematics at the University of Uzbekistan before joining the Institute of Control Sciences in Moscow, where he conducted groundbreaking research on learning theory. His theoretical framework, Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) theory, provided mathematical foundations for understanding how models generalise from training data to unseen examples-a concept intimately connected to loss function design and selection.

Vapnik’s insight that different loss functions encode different assumptions about what constitutes “good” model behaviour proved revolutionary. His work demonstrated that the choice of loss function directly influences not just training efficiency but the model’s ability to generalise. This principle remains central to modern machine learning: data scientists select loss functions strategically to encode domain knowledge and desired model properties, whether robustness to outliers, confidence in predictions, or balanced handling of imbalanced datasets.

Vapnik’s career spanned decades of innovation, including his later work on transductive learning and learning using privileged information. His theoretical contributions earned him numerous accolades and established him as one of the most influential figures in machine learning science. His emphasis on understanding the mathematical foundations of learning-particularly through the lens of loss functions and generalisation bounds-continues to guide contemporary research in deep learning and artificial intelligence.

Practical Significance

The selection of an appropriate loss function significantly impacts model performance and training efficiency. Data scientists carefully consider different loss functions to achieve specific objectives: reducing sensitivity to outliers, better handling noisy data, minimising overfitting, or improving performance on imbalanced datasets. The loss function thus represents not merely a technical component but a strategic choice that encodes domain expertise and learning objectives into the machine learning system itself.

References

1. https://www.datacamp.com/tutorial/loss-function-in-machine-learning

2. https://h2o.ai/wiki/loss-function/

3. https://c3.ai/introduction-what-is-machine-learning/loss-functions/

4. https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/machine-learning/ml-common-loss-functions/

5. https://arxiv.org/html/2504.04242v1

6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_ueBW_5dLg

7. https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/loss-function

8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function

9. https://www.datarobot.com/blog/introduction-to-loss-functions/

"A loss function, also known as a cost function, is a mathematical function that quantifies the difference between a model's predicted output and the actual 'ground truth' value for a given input." - Term: Loss function

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