ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

“I see a couple people doing some dumb things. They’re just doing dumb things to create NII.” – Jamie Dimon – JP Morgan Chase CEO

In a candid assessment delivered at JPMorgan Chase’s 2026 company update on 23 February, CEO Jamie Dimon voiced profound concerns about the financial landscape, drawing direct parallels to the reckless lending practices that precipitated the 2008 global financial crisis. He observed competitors engaging in imprudent strategies purely to inflate net interest income (NII), a key profitability metric derived from lending spreads and investments^1,3. This remark underscores Dimon’s longstanding vigilance amid buoyant markets, where high asset prices and surging volumes foster complacency^1,2.

Jamie Dimon’s Background and Leadership

Jamie Dimon, born in 1956 in New York to Greek immigrant parents, embodies the archetype of a battle-hardened banker. Educated at Tufts University and Harvard Business School, he ascended through the ranks at American Express and Citigroup before co-founding Bank One in 1991, where he orchestrated a remarkable turnaround. In 2004, he assumed the helm of JPMorgan Chase following its acquisition of Bank One, steering the institution through the 2008 crisis as one of the few major banks to emerge unscathed. Under his stewardship, JPMorgan has ballooned into the world’s most valuable bank by market capitalisation, with Dimon earning renown for his prescient risk management and forthright annual shareholder letters¹. His tenure has been marked by navigating geopolitical tensions, regulatory scrutiny, and technological disruptions, all while prioritising capital strength over opportunistic growth.

Context of the Quote: A Market on the Brink?

Dimon’s comments arrived against a backdrop of intensifying competition in lending and private credit markets, where firms scramble to capture market share amid elevated interest rates and economic optimism. He likened the current environment to 2005-2007, when ‘the rising tide was lifting all boats’ and excessive leverage permeated the system, culminating in subprime mortgage meltdowns^1,2,3. Recent indicators, such as the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and debt-burdened First Brands, evoked Dimon’s ‘cockroach theory’ – spotting one signals an infestation¹. Broader anxieties include artificial intelligence’s disruptive potential across sectors like software, utilities, and telecommunications, mirroring unforeseen vulnerabilities exposed in 2008^2,3. Despite S&P 500 highs, Dimon cautioned that credit cycles invariably turn, with surprises lurking in unexpected quarters³. JPMorgan, he affirmed, adheres strictly to underwriting standards, forgoing business rather than compromising¹.

Leading Theorists on Financial Crises and Risk-Taking

Dimon’s perspective resonates with seminal theories on financial instability. Hyman Minsky, the American economist whose ‘financial instability hypothesis’ (developed in the 1970s and 1980s) posits that stability breeds complacency, prompting speculative and Ponzi financing schemes that amplify booms into busts. Minsky argued that prolonged prosperity erodes risk aversion, much as Dimon describes today’s ‘dumb things’ to chase NII¹.

Complementing this, Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978, updated editions) outlines the anatomy of bubbles: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic. Kindleberger, building on Kindleberger’s historical analyses, highlighted herd behaviour and leverage as crisis harbingers, echoing Dimon’s pre-2008 parallels².

Modern extensions include Raghuram Rajan, former IMF Chief Economist and Reserve Bank of India Governor, whose 2005 Jackson Hole speech presciently warned of incentives driving financial institutions towards systemic risks. Rajan’s ‘search for yield’ concept – akin to boosting NII through lax lending – anticipated 2008 excesses³.

Nouriel Roubini, dubbed ‘Dr Doom’, forecasted the 2008 subprime debacle in 2006, emphasising global imbalances, debt overhangs, and asset bubbles. His framework aligns with Dimon’s cycle warnings, stressing confluence events like AI disruptions or policy shifts².

These theorists collectively illuminate Dimon’s caution: markets’ euphoria masks fragility, demanding disciplined risk assessment amid competitive pressures.

Implications for Investors and Markets

• Heightened Vigilance: Dimon’s stance signals potential volatility in private credit and lending, urging scrutiny of banks’ NII strategies.
• Sectoral Risks: AI-driven upheavals could mirror 2008’s utility surprises, impacting software and beyond.
• JPMorgan’s Edge: Conservative positioning may yield resilience, as proven in prior downturns.

Dimon’s words serve as a clarion call: prosperity’s siren song often precedes turbulence. Prudent navigation demands heeding history’s lessons.