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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
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Thoughts
Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Getting the Balance Right
By Kate Barnes
I am a working mother, as are many of my friends and past colleagues. Naturally we often debate the challenges of getting the balance between work and family right.
Personal circumstances vary widely and have a big impact on the choices one has, but my solution has been to work on a part-time basis. I have been lucky enough to do so for the past seven years and to me it seems like an excellent compromise. Yet there are many times when it feels like balance is the last thing I am achieving – in fact, I have the distinct feeling that I am failing on every front – my kids, my husband, and my boss, colleagues or direct reports, all want more of me.
Perhaps the truth is that I want too much. I want to be stimulated, challenged and to feel like I am adding value in the work place, but I also want to see my children more than the average, full-time working mother.
Many working mothers have made decisions involving changes to their working day in order to manage the work-family balance better. Unfortunately, I have found that one of the biggest issues is that one cannot simply decide on an approach, agree it with your employer, and then settle into whatever routine that entails. You might agree an arrangement to work 5, or 6 or 7 hours a day, or 30 hours a week, or to arrive at work early and leave by 3 or 4pm. But in most jobs, you will have to consider the balance equation on a daily basis, sometimes multiple times a day. Is today the day I give more to work because there is a demanding deadline and everyone else is working late, or is it the day I give more to my child, because he is receiving an award at school or swimming in a gala?
And often the call has to be made taking into consideration not only what is happening today, but also looking at where the pendulum fell yesterday, or last week, or over the past couple of weeks.
As with any decision there are consequences, even if at first they are unforeseen. In the early stages of my career, I like many, was an idealistic youngster with dreams of holding a very senior, leadership position. I was ambitious, and some might say that I had much of what it takes to achieve my goal. Some years down the track I was being interviewed for a prospective job and the potential employer noted from my CV that the achievements in my career (or lack thereof) were not in line with my academic record, and he wondered why this was. I can’t remember what my response was, but I know I knew the answer. I even knew at exactly which point in my career the upward trajectory slowed. It was the day I was working at a large corporate, and I asked for flexitime. I negotiated that on two afternoons a week, I would be allowed to leave at 2pm and I would make up the time in the evening, after my young children were asleep.
Shortly thereafter, when a potential internal move to a new position was being discussed I was informed that I could not be considered for the role as I was “part-time”.
This was a wake-up call.
Read more at http://www.globaladvisors.biz/thoughts/20170719/getting-the-balance-right/
Strategy Tools
Strategy Tools: Growth, Profit or Returns?
By Stuart Graham and Marc Wilson
Stuart is a manager and Marc is a partner at Global Advisors.
Both are based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Growth, profit or returns? It’s all three, however we find that the relationship between these and shareholder value creation is poorly understood – if at all.
All three measures become critical to the way forward as companies navigate the Covid-19 crisis.
After ensuring business survival, navigating through the Covid-19 crisis requires returns on invested capital AND growth to deliver shareholder returns. S&P 500 companies averaged 13% RONA and 5% revenue growth (CAGR) through the financial crisis (2008-2012) .
Monolithic survival approaches may starve compensating growth opportunities – a portfolio approach is required.
Key insights
Returns are not enough – companies must also grow to create value.
Profits and cash flows cannot increase indefinitely through cost-reduction, efficiency, business mix, etc – top-line growth is critical.
Returns must be above costs of capital to be value accretive.
S&P 500 companies averaged 13% ROIC and 5% revenue growth (CAGR) through the financial crisis (2008-2012).
Margins and revenue growth, or even profit growth in themselves don’t answer that question of whether shareholder value was created or destroyed. There are many examples of where growth and high margins actually destroy value.
Company valuations reflect an aggregate of their business portfolio – rebalancing segments based on their growth and return profiles can lift company value.
Growth requires investment – at the very least in the working capital required to support revenue growth.
Measuring RONA or ROIC and Revenue growth shows whether business activity is value accretive or destructive.
You can use the Global Advisors Market Cap (valuation) framework to map your business – and agree action to deliver improved shareholder returns.
Fast Facts
The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
- The use of full absorption or average costing in a manufacturing environment with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
- The increase in price to cover costs results in volume decreases – lowering factory utilisation and increasing unit production costs. This is the start of the utilisation-pricing “death spiral”
- Costing according to factory utilisation – partial absorption costing – offers the opportunity to be more strategic about costing and utilisation
- “Unabsorbed” costs can be targeted through OEE and volume improvements. At the same time, the “disadvantage” of having a large factory is normalised and pricing can compete with more fully-utilised factories
- A recent manufacturing client saw 60% of unit costs arise from factory under-utilisation – sub-optimal OEE levels (non-conformance), low volumes and work-centre bottlenecks contributed to the utilisation gap
- These principles can apply to any asset-intensive business – for example banking
Selected News
Quote: Andrej Karpathy – Ex-OpenAI, Ex-Tesla AI
“[With AI] we’re not building animals. We’re building ghosts or spirits.” – Andrej Karpathy – Ex-OpenAI, Ex-Tesla AI
Andrej Karpathy, renowned for his leadership roles at OpenAI and Tesla’s Autopilot programme, has been at the centre of advances in deep learning, neural networks, and applied artificial intelligence. His work traverses both academic research and industrial deployment, granting him a panoramic perspective on the state and direction of AI.
When Karpathy refers to building “ghosts or spirits,” he is drawing a conceptual line between biological intelligence—the product of millions of years of evolution—and artificial intelligence as developed through data-driven, digital systems. In his view, animals are “baked in” with instincts, embodiment, and innate learning capacities shaped by evolution, a process unfolding over geological timeframes. By contrast, today’s AI models are “ghosts” in the sense that they are ethereal, fully digital artefacts, trained to imitate human-generated data rather than to evolve or learn through direct interaction with the physical world. They lack bodily instincts and the evolutionary substrate that endows animals with survival strategies and adaptation mechanisms.
Karpathy describes the pre-training process that underpins large language models as a form of “crappy evolution”—a shortcut that builds digital entities by absorbing the statistical patterns of internet-scale data without the iterative adaptation of embodied beings. Consequently, these models are not “born” into the world like animals with built-in survival machinery; instead, they are bootstrapped as “ghosts,” imitating but not experiencing life.
The Cognitive Core—Karpathy’s Vision for AI Intelligence
Karpathy’s thinking has advanced towards the critical notion of the “cognitive core”: the kernel of intelligence responsible for reasoning, abstraction, and problem-solving, abstracted away from encyclopaedic factual knowledge. He argues that the true magic of intelligence is not in the passive recall of data, but in the flexible, generalisable ability to manipulate ideas, solve problems, and intuit patterns—capabilities that a system exhibits even when deprived of pre-programmed facts or exhaustive memory.
He warns against confusing memorisation (the stockpiling of internet facts within a model) with general intelligence, which arises from this cognitive core. The most promising path, in his view, is to isolate and refine this core, stripping away the accretions of memorised data, thereby developing something akin to a “ghost” of reasoning and abstraction rather than an “animal” shaped by instinct and inheritance.
This approach entails significant trade-offs: a cognitive core lacks the encyclopaedic reach of today’s massive models, but gains in adaptability, transparency, and the capacity for compositional, creative thought. By foregrounding reasoning machinery, Karpathy posits that AI can begin to mirror not the inflexibility of animals, but the open-ended, reflective qualities that characterise high-level problem-solving.
Karpathy’s Journey and Influence
Karpathy’s influence is rooted in a career spent on the frontier of AI research and deployment. His early proximity to Geoffrey Hinton at the University of Toronto placed him at the launch-point of the convolutional neural networks revolution, which fundamentally reshaped computer vision and pattern recognition.
At OpenAI, Karpathy contributed to an early focus on training agents to master digital environments (such as Atari games), a direction in retrospect he now considers premature. He found greater promise in systems that could interact with the digital world through knowledge work—precursors to today’s agentic models—a vision he is now helping to realise through ongoing work in educational technology and AI deployment.
Later, at Tesla, he directed the transformation of autonomous vehicles from demonstration to product, gaining hard-won appreciation for the “march of nines”—the reality that progressing from system prototypes that work 90% of the time to those that work 99.999% of the time requires exponentially more effort. This experience informs his scepticism towards aggressive timelines for “AGI” and his insistence on the qualitative differences between robust system deployment and controlled demonstrations.
The Leading Theorists Shaping the Debate
Karpathy’s conceptual framework emerges amid vibrant discourse within the AI community, shaped by several seminal thinkers:
Sutton’s “bitter lesson” posits that scale and generic algorithms, rather than domain-specific tricks, ultimately win—suggesting a focus on evolving animal-like intelligence. Karpathy, however, notes that current development practices, with their reliance on dataset imitation, sidestep the deep embodiment and evolutionary learning that define animal cognition. Instead, AI today creates digital ghosts—entities whose minds are not grounded in physical reality, but in the manifold of internet text and data.
Hinton and LeCun supply the neural and architectural foundations—the “cortex” and reasoning traces—while both Karpathy and their critics note the absence of rich, consolidated memory (the hippocampus analogue), instincts (amygdala), and the capacity for continual, self-motivated world interaction.
Why “Ghosts,” Not “Animals”?
The distinction is not simply philosophical. It carries direct consequences for:
- Capabilities: AI “ghosts” excel at pattern reproduction, simulation, and surface reasoning but lack the embodied, instinctual grounding (spatial navigation, sensorimotor learning) of animals.
- Limitations: They are subject to model collapse, producing uniform, repetitive outputs, lacking the spontaneous creativity and entropy seen in human (particularly child) cognition.
- Future Directions: The field is now oriented towards distilling this cognitive core, seeking a scalable, adaptable reasoning engine—compact, efficient, and resilient to overfitting—rather than continuing to bloat models with ever more static memory.
This lens sharpens expectations: the way forward is not to mimic biology in its totality, but to pursue the unique strengths and affordances of a digital, disembodied intelligence—a spirit of the datasphere, not a beast evolved in the forest.
Broader Significance
Karpathy’s “ghosts” metaphor crystallises a critical moment in the evolution of AI as a discipline. It signals a turning point: the shift from brute-force memorisation of the internet to intelligent, creative algorithms capable of abstraction, reasoning, and adaptation.
This reframing is shaping not only the strategic priorities of the most advanced labs, but also the philosophical and practical questions underpinning the next decade of AI research and deployment. As AI becomes increasingly present in society, understanding its nature—not as an artificial animal, but as a digital ghost—will be essential to harnessing its strengths and mitigating its limitations.

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