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Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
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Thoughts
Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Is insecurity behind that dysfunction?
By Marc Wilson
Marc is a partner at Global Advisors and based in Johannesburg, South Africa
Download this article at http://www.globaladvisors.biz/inc-feed/20170907/thoughts-is-insecurity-behind-that-dysfunction
We tend to characterise insecurity as what we see in overtly fragile, shy and awkward people. We think that their insecurity presents as lack of confidence. And often we associate it with under-achievement.
Sometimes we might be aware that insecurities can lie behind the -ias, -isms and the phobias. Body dysmorphia? Insecurity about attractiveness. Racism? Often the need to find security by claiming superiority, belonging to group with power, a group you understand and whose acceptance you want. Homophobia? Often insecurity about one’s own sexuality or masculinity / feminity.
So it is often counter-intuitive when we discover that often behind incredible success lies – insecurity! In fact, an article I once read described the successful elite of strategy consulting firms as typically “insecure over-achievers.”
Insecurity must be one of the most misunderstood drivers of dysfunction. Instead we see its related symptoms and react to those. “That woman is so overbearing. That guy is so aggressive! That girl is so self-absorbed. That guy is so competitive.” Even, “That guy is so arrogant.”
How is it that someone we might perceive as competitive, arrogant or overconfident might be insecure? Sometimes people overcompensate to hide a weakness or insecurity. Sometimes in an effort to avoid feeling defensive of a perceived shortcoming, they might go on the offensive – telling people they are the opposite or even faking security.
Do we even know what insecurity is? The very need to…
Read the rest of “Power, Control and Space” at http://www.globaladvisors.biz/inc-feed/20170907/thoughts-is-insecurity-behind-that-dysfunction
Strategy Tools
Your due diligence is most likely wrong
As many as 70 – 90% of deals fail to create value for acquirers. The majority of these deals were the subject of commercial or strategic due diligences (DDs). Many DDs are rubber stamps – designed to motivate an investment to shareholders. Yet the requirements for a value-adding DD go beyond this.
Strategic due diligence must test investees against uncertainty via a variety of methods that include scenarios, probabilised forecasts and stress tests to ensure that investees are value accretive.
Firms that invest during downturns outperform those who don’t. DDs undertaken during downturns have a particularly difficult task – how to assess the future prospects of an investee when the future is so uncertain.
There is clearly an integrated approach to successful due diligence – despite the challenges posed by uncertainty.
Read more…
Fast Facts
The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
- The use of full absorption or average costing in a manufacturing environment with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
- The increase in price to cover costs results in volume decreases – lowering factory utilisation and increasing unit production costs. This is the start of the utilisation-pricing “death spiral”
- Costing according to factory utilisation – partial absorption costing – offers the opportunity to be more strategic about costing and utilisation
- “Unabsorbed” costs can be targeted through OEE and volume improvements. At the same time, the “disadvantage” of having a large factory is normalised and pricing can compete with more fully-utilised factories
- A recent manufacturing client saw 60% of unit costs arise from factory under-utilisation – sub-optimal OEE levels (non-conformance), low volumes and work-centre bottlenecks contributed to the utilisation gap
- These principles can apply to any asset-intensive business – for example banking
Selected News
Term: Model weights
“Model weights are the crucial numerical parameters learned during training that define a model’s internal knowledge, dictating how input data is transformed into outputs and enabling it to recognise patterns and make predictions.” – Model weights
Model weights represent the learnable numerical parameters within a neural network that determine how input data is processed to generate predictions, functioning similarly to synaptic strengths in a biological brain.1,2,4 These values control the influence of specific features on the output, such as edges in images or tokens in language models, through operations like matrix multiplications, convolutions, or weighted sums across layers.1,2,3 Initially randomised, weights are optimised during training via algorithms like gradient descent, which iteratively adjust them to minimise a loss function measuring the difference between predictions and actual targets.1,2,5
In practice, for a simple linear regression model expressed as y = wx + b, the weight w scales the input x to predict y, while b is the bias term.2 In complex architectures like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) or large language models (LLMs), weights include filters detecting textures and fully connected layers combining features, often numbering in billions.1,2,5 This enables tasks from image classification to real-time translation, with pre-trained weights facilitating transfer learning on custom datasets.1
Weights are distinct from biases, which add normalisation and extra characteristics to the weighted sum before activation functions, aiding forward and backward propagation.3,6 Protecting these parameters is vital, as they encode the model’s performance, robustness, and decision logic; unauthorised changes can lead to malfunction.5 In LLMs, weights boost emphasis on words or associations, shaping generative outputs.3
Key Theorist: Geoffrey Hinton
The preeminent theorist linked to model weights is **Geoffrey Hinton**, often called the ‘Godfather of Deep Learning’ for pioneering backpropagation and neural network training techniques that optimise these parameters.1,2 Hinton’s seminal 1986 paper with David Rumelhart and Ronald Williams popularised backpropagation, the cornerstone algorithm for adjusting weights layer-by-layer based on error gradients, revolutionising machine learning.2,4
Born in 1947 in Wimbledon, London, Hinton descends from a lineage of scientists: his great-great-grandfather George Boole invented Boolean logic, his grandfather Charles Howard Hinton coined ‘hyperspace’, and his great-uncle was logician Bertrand Russell. Initially studying experimental psychology at Cambridge (BA 1970), Hinton earned a PhD in AI from Edinburgh in 1978, focusing on Boltzmann machines-early stochastic neural networks with learnable weights. Disillusioned with symbolic AI, he championed connectionism, simulating brain-like learning via weights.
In the 1980s, amid the first AI winter, Hinton persisted at Carnegie Mellon and Toronto, developing restricted Boltzmann machines for unsupervised pre-training of weights, addressing vanishing gradients. His 2006 breakthrough with Alex Krizhevsky and Ilya Sutskever-training deep belief networks on ImageNet-proved deep nets with billions of weights could excel, sparking the deep learning revolution.1 At Google Brain (2013-2023), he advanced capsule networks and transformers indirectly influencing LLMs. Hinton quit Google in 2023, warning of AI risks, and won the 2018 Turing Award with Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio. His work directly underpins how modern models, including LLMs, learn weights to recognise patterns and predict outcomes.3,5
References
1. https://www.ultralytics.com/glossary/model-weights
2. https://www.tencentcloud.com/techpedia/132448
3. https://blog.metaphysic.ai/weights-in-machine-learning/
4. https://tedai-sanfrancisco.ted.com/glossary/weights/
5. https://alliancefortrustinai.org/how-model-weights-can-be-used-to-fine-tune-ai-models/
6. https://h2o.ai/wiki/weights-and-biases/

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