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Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

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Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Is insecurity behind that dysfunction?

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Is insecurity behind that dysfunction?

By Marc Wilson
Marc is a partner at Global Advisors and based in Johannesburg, South Africa

Download this article at http://www.globaladvisors.biz/inc-feed/20170907/thoughts-is-insecurity-behind-that-dysfunction

We tend to characterise insecurity as what we see in overtly fragile, shy and awkward people. We think that their insecurity presents as lack of confidence. And often we associate it with under-achievement.

Sometimes we might be aware that insecurities can lie behind the -ias, -isms and the phobias. Body dysmorphia? Insecurity about attractiveness. Racism? Often the need to find security by claiming superiority, belonging to group with power, a group you understand and whose acceptance you want. Homophobia? Often insecurity about one’s own sexuality or masculinity / feminity.

So it is often counter-intuitive when we discover that often behind incredible success lies – insecurity! In fact, an article I once read described the successful elite of strategy consulting firms as typically “insecure over-achievers.”

Insecurity must be one of the most misunderstood drivers of dysfunction. Instead we see its related symptoms and react to those. “That woman is so overbearing. That guy is so aggressive! That girl is so self-absorbed. That guy is so competitive.” Even, “That guy is so arrogant.”

How is it that someone we might perceive as competitive, arrogant or overconfident might be insecure? Sometimes people overcompensate to hide a weakness or insecurity. Sometimes in an effort to avoid feeling defensive of a perceived shortcoming, they might go on the offensive – telling people they are the opposite or even faking security.

Do we even know what insecurity is? The very need to…

Read the rest of “Power, Control and Space” at http://www.globaladvisors.biz/inc-feed/20170907/thoughts-is-insecurity-behind-that-dysfunction

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Strategy Tools

Your due diligence is most likely wrong

Your due diligence is most likely wrong

As many as 70 – 90% of deals fail to create value for acquirers. The majority of these deals were the subject of commercial or strategic due diligences (DDs). Many DDs are rubber stamps – designed to motivate an investment to shareholders. Yet the requirements for a value-adding DD go beyond this.

Strategic due diligence must test investees against uncertainty via a variety of methods that include scenarios, probabilised forecasts and stress tests to ensure that investees are value accretive.

Firms that invest during downturns outperform those who don’t. DDs undertaken during downturns have a particularly difficult task – how to assess the future prospects of an investee when the future is so uncertain.

There is clearly an integrated approach to successful due diligence – despite the challenges posed by uncertainty.

Read more…

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Fast Facts

The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies

The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies

Non-conformance costs can distort pricing decisions The use of full absorption or average costing in asset-intensive industries with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies

  • The use of full absorption or average costing in a manufacturing environment with under-utilisation can lead to self-defeating pricing strategies
  • The increase in price to cover costs results in volume decreases – lowering factory utilisation and increasing unit production costs. This is the start of the utilisation-pricing “death spiral”
  • Costing according to factory utilisation – partial absorption costing – offers the opportunity to be more strategic about costing and utilisation
  • “Unabsorbed” costs can be targeted through OEE and volume improvements. At the same time, the “disadvantage” of having a large factory is normalised and pricing can compete with more fully-utilised factories
  • A recent manufacturing client saw 60% of unit costs arise from factory under-utilisation – sub-optimal OEE levels (non-conformance), low volumes and work-centre bottlenecks contributed to the utilisation gap
  • These principles can apply to any asset-intensive business – for example banking
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Selected News

Term: Loss function

Term: Loss function

“A loss function, also known as a cost function, is a mathematical function that quantifies the difference between a model’s predicted output and the actual ‘ground truth’ value for a given input.” – Loss function

A loss function is a mathematical function that quantifies the discrepancy between a model’s predicted output and the actual ground truth value for a given input. Also referred to as an error function or cost function, it serves as the objective function that machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms seek to optimize during training efforts.

Core Purpose and Function

The loss function operates as a feedback mechanism within machine learning systems. When a model makes a prediction, the loss function calculates a numerical value representing the prediction error-the gap between what the model predicted and what actually occurred. This error quantification is fundamental to the learning process. During training, algorithms such as backpropagation use the gradient of the loss function with respect to the model’s parameters to iteratively adjust weights and biases, progressively reducing the loss and improving predictive accuracy.

The relationship between loss function and cost function warrants clarification: whilst these terms are often used interchangeably, a loss function technically applies to a single training example, whereas a cost function typically represents the average loss across an entire dataset or batch. Both, however, serve the same essential purpose of guiding model optimization.

Key Roles in Machine Learning

Loss functions fulfil several critical functions within machine learning systems:

  • Performance measurement: Loss functions provide a quantitative metric to evaluate how well a model’s predictions align with actual results, enabling objective assessment of model effectiveness.
  • Optimization guidance: By calculating prediction error, loss functions direct the learning algorithm to adjust parameters iteratively, creating a clear path toward improved predictions.
  • Bias-variance balance: Effective loss functions help balance model bias (oversimplification) and variance (overfitting), essential for generalisation to new, unseen data.
  • Training signal: The gradient of the loss function provides the signal by which learning algorithms update model weights during backpropagation.

Common Loss Function Types

Different machine learning tasks require different loss functions. For regression problems involving continuous numerical predictions, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are widely employed. The MAE formula is:

\text{MAE} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left| y_i - \hat{y}_i \right|

For classification tasks dealing with categorical data, Binary Cross-Entropy (also called Log Loss) is commonly used for binary classification problems. The formula is:

L(y, f(x)) = -[y \cdot \log(f(x)) + (1 - y) \cdot \log(1 - f(x))]

where y represents the true binary label (0 or 1) and f(x) is the predicted probability of the positive class.

For multi-class classification, Categorical Cross-Entropy extends this concept. Additionally, Hinge Loss is particularly useful in binary classification where clear separation between classes is desired:

L(y, f(x)) = \max(0, 1 - y \cdot f(x))

The Huber Loss function provides robustness to outliers by combining quadratic and linear components, switching between them based on a threshold parameter delta (?).

Related Strategy Theorist: Vladimir Vapnik

Vladimir Naumovich Vapnik (born 1935) stands as a foundational figure in the theoretical underpinnings of loss functions and machine learning optimisation. A Soviet and later American computer scientist, Vapnik’s work on Statistical Learning Theory and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) fundamentally shaped how the machine learning community understands loss functions and their role in model generalisation.

Vapnik’s most significant contribution to loss function theory came through his development of Support Vector Machines in the 1990s, where he introduced the concept of the hinge loss function-a loss function specifically designed to maximise the margin between classification boundaries. This represented a paradigm shift in thinking about loss functions: rather than simply minimising prediction error, Vapnik’s approach emphasised confidence and margin, ensuring models were not merely correct but confidently correct by a specified distance.

Born in the Soviet Union, Vapnik studied mathematics at the University of Uzbekistan before joining the Institute of Control Sciences in Moscow, where he conducted groundbreaking research on learning theory. His theoretical framework, Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) theory, provided mathematical foundations for understanding how models generalise from training data to unseen examples-a concept intimately connected to loss function design and selection.

Vapnik’s insight that different loss functions encode different assumptions about what constitutes “good” model behaviour proved revolutionary. His work demonstrated that the choice of loss function directly influences not just training efficiency but the model’s ability to generalise. This principle remains central to modern machine learning: data scientists select loss functions strategically to encode domain knowledge and desired model properties, whether robustness to outliers, confidence in predictions, or balanced handling of imbalanced datasets.

Vapnik’s career spanned decades of innovation, including his later work on transductive learning and learning using privileged information. His theoretical contributions earned him numerous accolades and established him as one of the most influential figures in machine learning science. His emphasis on understanding the mathematical foundations of learning-particularly through the lens of loss functions and generalisation bounds-continues to guide contemporary research in deep learning and artificial intelligence.

Practical Significance

The selection of an appropriate loss function significantly impacts model performance and training efficiency. Data scientists carefully consider different loss functions to achieve specific objectives: reducing sensitivity to outliers, better handling noisy data, minimising overfitting, or improving performance on imbalanced datasets. The loss function thus represents not merely a technical component but a strategic choice that encodes domain expertise and learning objectives into the machine learning system itself.

References

1. https://www.datacamp.com/tutorial/loss-function-in-machine-learning

2. https://h2o.ai/wiki/loss-function/

3. https://c3.ai/introduction-what-is-machine-learning/loss-functions/

4. https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/machine-learning/ml-common-loss-functions/

5. https://arxiv.org/html/2504.04242v1

6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_ueBW_5dLg

7. https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/loss-function

8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function

9. https://www.datarobot.com/blog/introduction-to-loss-functions/

"A loss function, also known as a cost function, is a mathematical function that quantifies the difference between a model's predicted output and the actual 'ground truth' value for a given input." - Term: Loss function

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