“We must deal with the world we have – and strive for the one we want.” – Jamie Dimon – JPMorgan Chase 2025 Chairman and CEO Letter to Shareholders
Jamie Dimon’s 2025 letter is written from the vantage point of what he calls the most complex set of risks since World War II – a combination of geopolitical conflict, economic strain and disruptive technologies such as AI that is reshaping both national security and the workforce.1,11,13 Rather than focusing only on near?term recession odds, he frames tariffs, war and political dysfunction as part of a broader test of American resolve, alliances and values, arguing that policy choices over the next decade will determine whether the US strengthens or erodes its leadership of the free world.1,11 His call to “deal with the world we have” is therefore less about forecasting the next downturn and more about insisting on pragmatic, long?term decisions on security, economics and technology that preserve opportunity at home and credibility abroad.1,9
Economic Performance Amid Headwinds
Against this backdrop, JPMorgan Chase again delivered strong results in 2025, with revenue of around 186 billion USD, net income of approximately 57 billion USD and a return on tangible common equity of 20%, extending its record of consistent earnings power through a volatile cycle.1,5,8 The firm continues to operate at a scale that makes it systemically central: it processes roughly 10 trillion USD of payments daily across more than 120 currencies in 160 countries and safeguards tens of trillions of client assets, while extending and raising around 2,8 trillion USD for clients globally in support of growth and resilience.1,13 Dimon emphasises that these results are the product of a deliberate, long?term programme of investment in technology, people, risk and controls rather than short?term optimisation, and he re?commits to reinvesting a substantial share of earnings in capabilities that underpin future competitiveness.1,15
- Performance remains broad?based across consumer, wholesale, markets and asset & wealth management, with the franchise deliberately managed as an integrated but non?conglomerate business to create durable earnings without unnecessary complexity.1
- Tangible book value and capital generation support sustained investment and shareholder distributions, with Dimon reiterating that capital will be deployed where the firm has enduring competitive advantage and withdrawn where returns are structurally inadequate.1,13
- Peer results – for example, Chubb’s 25,7% tangible book value per share growth in 2025 and steady dividend?led distributions – highlight that resilience and long?term compounding remain achievable in financial services when underwriting, risk and capital allocation are disciplined.2
Dimon is explicit that competition is fierce and that there are “no high walls” protecting JPMorgan’s position; he insists on an “owner–operator” mindset focused on organic growth, prudent management of excess capital and a constant fight against complacency, bureaucracy and arrogance inside the firm.1 Goldman Sachs, for comparison, grew net revenues 9% to 58,3 billion USD in 2025, with earnings per share up 27% to 51,32 USD and ROE at 15,0%, underscoring that leading franchises are still able to grow and invest through uncertainty.4
Tariffs, Inflation and the Real Risk
Dimon acknowledges that President Trump’s tariff regime introduces meaningful inflationary pressure through higher input costs and reduced substitutability in global trade, and he expects these forces to weigh on growth and raise recession probabilities when layered on top of existing structural challenges.5,7 He views tariffs as another “straw on the camel’s back” rather than the single dominant shock – warning that retaliation, confidence effects, disrupted capital flows and pressure on the US dollar could all interact in ways that are hard to model and even harder to reverse.5,7 At the same time, he recognises that some trade?offs may be justified for national security and supply?chain resilience, arguing that stakeholders should be prepared to “get over it” if the strategic benefits are real and alliances are ultimately strengthened rather than weakened.5
Market performance has reflected these cross?currents, with JPMorgan’s share price under pressure alongside peers in early 2026 as investors digest higher?for?longer rates, tariff uncertainty and geopolitical shocks.6,11 Chubb’s CEO similarly flags geopolitical and macro risks in 2025, linking them directly to underwriting decisions and capital allocation across P&C, investments and growing life franchises.2
Geopolitics, Alliances and Security
Dimon is unequivocal that the primary risk is geopolitical, not purely cyclical – encompassing war in Ukraine, conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East, rising tensions with China and the possibility of miscalculation among nuclear powers.1,9,11 He stresses that tariffs and other economic tools must be evaluated not only through the lens of GDP and inflation but also their impact on long?term alliances, military co?operation and the credibility of the US as a partner to democracies around the world.1,5 This perspective is consistent with broader commentary from leaders such as PwC’s chairman and BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who both highlight converging industry boundaries, shifting workforces and the importance of open, well?functioning capital markets for prosperity.10,12
- Dimon links persistent US fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, supply?chain restructuring and defence spending to the likelihood of sticky inflation and structurally higher real rates, arguing that policy realism is required to avoid lurching from one crisis response to another.1
- He frames geopolitical resilience as an area where the private sector – including banks – must support government, for example through financing critical infrastructure, energy and defence?related projects that reinforce security for the US and its allies.1,15
- The transition at Berkshire Hathaway post?Warren Buffett is cited more broadly as an example of how leadership continuity and culture matter in navigating long?duration uncertainty.8,14
Within this context, Dimon highlights consumer payments and digital financial services as key battlegrounds where global competitors, big tech platforms and new entrants are challenging incumbents, reinforcing his push to root out internal bureaucracy and ensure JPMorgan remains agile despite its scale.1
AI, Security and National Priorities
A distinctive feature of the 2025 letter is the depth of focus on AI, data and technology, which Dimon describes as central to both the firm’s strategy and to national security and competitiveness.1,11,12 He sees AI as a double?edged sword: a source of enormous productivity and innovation, but also a driver of job displacement and a major amplifier of cyber risk as sophisticated tools become available to hostile actors.1,6,12 JPMorgan’s Security and Resiliency Initiative is positioned as a concrete response – deploying capital and expertise into sectors deemed critical for the military and economic security of the US and its partners, with an explicit recognition that “we have a lot to catch up on and not much time”.1,15
Beyond AI, Dimon lists a set of national priorities – including border management, income inequality, education and skills, social cohesion and government effectiveness – where he believes pragmatic, bipartisan solutions are both possible and necessary.1,6,9 His insistence on celebrating American values of freedom, liberty and opportunity is not rhetorical; it is presented as a precondition for rebuilding trust in institutions and sustaining the dynamism that has historically underpinned US economic leadership.1,9
Debates on Policy and the Role of Business
On tariffs and industrial policy, Dimon acknowledges arguments that targeted protection can support domestic industries and national security, but he cautions that poorly designed or unilateral measures risk damaging alliances and undermining the very strategic objectives they aim to advance.1,5,7 He urges policymakers and business leaders to focus on reversibility, coalition?building with like?minded countries and the cumulative impact of multiple headwinds on growth, profits and investment.1,5 In parallel, he rejects a narrow, domestic?only perspective, arguing that a global institution such as JPMorgan experiences these tensions in real time across markets and must therefore manage both the risks and the responsibility that come with its scale.1,13
Peers like Chubb and Berkshire Hathaway show different versions of the same logic: diversified underwriting in P&C, disciplined investment across cycles and long?term leadership continuity can all support wealth creation even when the macro backdrop is deteriorating.2,8,14 Goldman Sachs’ push into alternatives – raising 115 billion USD in the year and 438 billion USD since 2020 – underlines the growing role of private capital in financing growth and transformation in a world where public markets and bank balance sheets cannot shoulder the load alone.4
Implications for Stakeholders
For investors, Dimon’s message is that near?term volatility – including elevated recession risks, geopolitical shocks and policy missteps – must be weighed against institutions’ ability to generate high?teens ROTCE, reinvest at scale in technology and risk, and sustain disciplined capital return over time.1,5,8 For boards and executives, the letter reads as a challenge to avoid incrementalism: to confront strategic risks directly, back long?term investments even when markets are jittery and ensure leadership and culture are robust enough to handle an environment that may be more volatile for longer.1,8,14
For policymakers and broader society, the core message is about interconnectedness: trillions of dollars of daily financial flows, global supply chains and digital infrastructure are now tightly coupled with geopolitics, cyber risk and AI, which means that misjudgements in one domain can quickly cascade into others.1,11,12 As with Chubb’s 385% tangible book value growth over two decades, sustained wealth creation in this world depends less on predicting specific shocks and more on building systems – from regulatory frameworks to corporate balance sheets – that are resilient, adaptive and anchored in clear principles.2
Long?Term Wealth Creation and Leadership
Dimon closes by linking JPMorgan’s strategy to long?term wealth creation: underwriting, lending, advisory and asset management activities that support clients through cycles, combined with continuous reinvestment in technology and people, are designed to compound value over decades, not quarters.1,5 In parallel, examples such as Chubb’s 74% tangible book value growth over three years and its emphasis on steady dividends reinforce the point that shareholder alignment and disciplined execution remain the foundations of durable outperformance.2
In Dimon’s framing, the task for leaders is to confront today’s uncertainties – from tariffs and war to AI and cyber risk – while still acting as stewards of an economic system that can deliver opportunity for the next generation.1,11,12 That, ultimately, is what it means to “deal with the world we have – and strive for the one we want”.1
References
1.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) Q4 CY2025 Earnings — Fortune —
https://fortune.com/company/jpmorgan-chase/earnings/q4-2025/
2.
JPMorgan Chase 2026 NII and Expense Guidance — StockTitan / SEC 8-K —
https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/JPM/8-k-jpmorgan-chase-co-reports-material-event-3dab6edaae1a.html
3.
Jamie Dimon’s Letter to Shareholders, Annual Report 2025 — JPMorgan Chase —
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
4.
JPMorgan Chase Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (PDF) —
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2025/4th-quarter/d868c7ef-1670-465d-ba75-c2b36ddbcc6b.pdf
5.
JPMorgan Chase Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation (PDF) —
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2025/4th-quarter/3f2030e7-c144-4ad8-92b8-57b36851ffb6.pdf
6.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) Q4 CY2025 In Line With Expectations — Yahoo Finance —
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-chase-nyse-jpm-reports-123519414.html
7.
JPMorgan Chase Earnings Release Financial Supplement Q2 2025 — SEC —
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961725000518/a2q25erfex992supplement.htm
8.
Jamie Dimon on AI and Geopolitical Risk — Axios, 2 April 2026 —
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/02/jamie-dimon-ai-geopolitical-risk-axios-show
9.
JPMorgan Chase Q1 2025 Earnings Report — mlq.ai —
https://mlq.ai/stocks/JPM/q1-2025-earnings/
10.
CNBC: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Annual Letter — LinkedIn —
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cnbc_jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-in-annual-letter-activity-7446860564171132928-YK8A
11.
JPMorgan Chase Q2 2025 Earnings Highlights — Yahoo Finance —
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-q2-070354134.html
12.
JP Morgan Chase Reports Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Performances — Brokstock —
https://brokstock.co.za/news/jp-morgan-chase-reports-strong-q4-and-full-year-2025-performances/
13.
Jamie Dimon Warns the U.S. Faces Its Riskiest Moment Since WWII — Inc. —
https://www.inc.com/leila-sheridan/jamie-dimon-riskiest-moment-wwii/91326060
14.
JPMorgan Chase SEC 10-K Report — TradingView —
https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:d1cef6e559036:0-jpmorgan-chase-co-sec-10-k-report/
15.
JPMorgan Chase Full-Year 2025 Earnings Narrative (SEC Exhibit 99.1) —
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026001902/a4q25erfexhibit991narrative.htm
