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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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Global Advisors: a consulting leader in defining quantified strategy, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions, achieving measureable results.

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Quantified Strategy

Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions

Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.

We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.

We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.

We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.

Our latest

Thoughts

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: So you think you’re self-aware?

Global Advisors’ Thoughts: So you think you’re self-aware?

So you think you’re self-aware?

By Marc Wilson

So you think you’re self-aware? 95% of people believe themselves to be self-aware. Recent research shows that just 10 to 15% of people are (Eurich, T – “Insight” – Crown Business – 2017).

Self-awareness may be the most elusive and challenging skill we attempt to gain. It is a foundation for authentic leadership, it is required to be empathetic, it helps us conquer our insecurities, it is critical for robust, true friendship and love. Without it, we can never be sure that we will achieve happiness. Without self-awareness success will be ill-defined. Also, we will never be sure if how we act and react to others is real or merely a result of our attempts to craft our image to meet our own or others’ desires – or in order to avoid being what we fear.

For many of us, there are people around us who have a better understanding of us than we do ourselves. We delude ourselves based on what we want to be or don’t want to be. It is also a sad reality that our true self….

Read more at
http://www.globaladvisors.biz/thoughts/20170724/so-you-think-youre-self-aware

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Strategy Tools

Strategy Tools: Growth, Profit or Returns?

Strategy Tools: Growth, Profit or Returns?

By Stuart Graham and Marc Wilson

Stuart is a manager and Marc is a partner at Global Advisors.
Both are based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Growth, profit or returns? It’s all three, however we find that the relationship between these and shareholder value creation is poorly understood – if at all.

All three measures become critical to the way forward as companies navigate the Covid-19 crisis.

After ensuring business survival, navigating through the Covid-19 crisis requires returns on invested capital AND growth to deliver shareholder returns. S&P 500 companies averaged 13% RONA and 5% revenue growth (CAGR) through the financial crisis (2008-2012) .

Monolithic survival approaches may starve compensating growth opportunities – a portfolio approach is required.


Key insights

Returns are not enough – companies must also grow to create value.

Profits and cash flows cannot increase indefinitely through cost-reduction, efficiency, business mix, etc – top-line growth is critical.

Returns must be above costs of capital to be value accretive.

S&P 500 companies averaged 13% ROIC and 5% revenue growth (CAGR) through the financial crisis (2008-2012).

Margins and revenue growth, or even profit growth in themselves don’t answer that question of whether shareholder value was created or destroyed. There are many examples of where growth and high margins actually destroy value.

Company valuations reflect an aggregate of their business portfolio – rebalancing segments based on their growth and return profiles can lift company value.

Growth requires investment – at the very least in the working capital required to support revenue growth.

Measuring RONA or ROIC and Revenue growth shows whether business activity is value accretive or destructive.

You can use the Global Advisors Market Cap (valuation) framework to map your business – and agree action to deliver improved shareholder returns.

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Fast Facts

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) can be applied to business portfolio decision-making

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) can be applied to business portfolio decision-making

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) can be applied to business portfolio decision-making

  • Shareholders seek to maximise company profits while minimising risk
  • However, lower risk businesses are usually accompanied with lower returns and high risk businesses with higher returns
  • Comparisons between various risk and return profiles can be measured using the Sharpe ratio – return per unit of risk
  • Combinations (degree of balance sheet investment) in individual portfolios could realise higher returns per unit of risk than what is achievable in an individual business unit – some combinations are not always obvious
  • By exiting a higher risk-return portfolio BU J, ABC would be able to increase its return per unit of risk from 4,3 to 4,5
  • It is often psychologically difficult for businesses to exit high return portfolios
  • Emotional decision-making can be muted by applying the logic of modern portfolio theory in the board room
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Selected News

Term: World model

Term: World model

“A world model is defined as a learned neural representation that simulates the dynamics of an environment, enabling an AI agent to predict future states and reason about the consequences of its actions.” – World model

A **world model** is an internal representation of the environment that an AI system creates to simulate the external world within itself. This learned neural representation enables an AI agent to predict future states, simulate the consequences of different actions before executing them in the real world, and reason about causal relationships, much like the human brain does when planning activities.1,3,6

At its core, a world model comprises key components:

  • Transition model: Predicts how the environment’s state changes based on the agent’s actions, such as a robot displacing an object by moving its hand.1
  • Observation model: Determines what the agent observes in each state, incorporating data from sensors, cameras, and other inputs.1
  • Reward model: In reinforcement learning contexts, forecasts rewards or penalties from actions in specific states.1

Unlike traditional machine learning, which maps inputs directly to outputs, world models foster a general understanding of environmental dynamics, enhancing performance in novel situations.1,4

Key Capabilities and Advantages

World models empower AI with:

  • Causality understanding: Grasping why events occur, beyond mere statistical correlations seen in large language models (LLMs) like GPT.1,2
  • Planning and reasoning: Simulating scenarios internally to select optimal actions, akin to chain-of-thought reasoning.1,3
  • Efficient learning: Requiring fewer examples, similar to a child grasping gravity after minimal observations.1
  • Transfer learning and generalisation: Applying knowledge across domains, such as adapting object manipulation skills.1
  • Intuitive physics: Comprehending basic physical principles, essential for real-world interaction.1,4

Trained on diverse data like videos, photos, audio, and text, world models provide richer grounding in reality than LLMs, which focus on text patterns.2,4,6

Role in Achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Prominent figures like Yann LeCun (Meta), Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind), and Yoshua Bengio (Mila) view world models as crucial for AGI, enabling safe, scientific, and intelligent systems that plan ahead and simulate outcomes.3 Recent advancements, such as DeepMind’s Genie 3 (August 2025), generate diverse 3D environments from text prompts, simulating realistic physics for AI training.1 Runway’s GWM-1 further advances general-purpose simulation for robotics and discovery.5

Best Related Strategy Theorist: Yann LeCun

**Yann LeCun**, Chief AI Scientist at Meta and a pioneer of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), is the foremost theorist championing world models as foundational for intelligent AI. LeCun describes them as internal predictive models that simulate real-world dynamics, incorporating modules for perception, prediction, cost/reward evaluation, and planning. This allows AI to ‘imagine’ action consequences, vital for robotics, autonomous vehicles, and AGI.2,3

Born in 1960 in France, LeCun earned his PhD in 1987 from Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, under supervision of Yves Le Cun (no relation). He popularised CNNs in the 1980s-1990s for handwriting recognition, co-founding the field of deep learning. Joining New York University as a professor in 2003, he co-directed the NYU Center for Data Science. In 2013, he became Meta’s first AI head, driving open-source initiatives like PyTorch.

LeCun’s advocacy for world models stems from his critique of LLMs’ limitations in causal reasoning and physical simulation. He argues they enable ‘objective-driven AI’ with energy-based models for planning, positioning world models as the path beyond pattern-matching to human-like intelligence. A Turing Award winner (2018) with Bengio and Hinton, LeCun’s vision influences labs worldwide, emphasising world models for safe, efficient real-world AI.2,3

References

1. https://deepfa.ir/en/blog/world-model-ai-agi-future

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qulPOUiz-08

3. https://www.quantamagazine.org/world-models-an-old-idea-in-ai-mount-a-comeback-20250902/

4. https://www.turingpost.com/p/topic-35-what-are-world-models

5. https://runwayml.com/research/introducing-runway-gwm-1

6. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/14/what-are-ai-world-models-and-why-do-they-matter/

"A world model is defined as a learned neural representation that simulates the dynamics of an environment, enabling an AI agent to predict future states and reason about the consequences of its actions." - Term: World model

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Consultants join our firm based on a fit with our values, culture and vision. They believe in and are excited by our differentiated approach. They realise that working on our clients’ most important projects is a privilege. While the problems we solve are strategic to clients, consultants recognise that solutions primarily require hard work – rigorous and thorough analysis, partnering with client team members to overcome political and emotional obstacles, and a large investment in knowledge development and self-growth.

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