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Decreased uncertainty, improved decisions
Global Advisors is a leader in defining quantified strategies, decreasing uncertainty, improving decisions and achieving measureable results.
We specialise in providing highly-analytical data-driven recommendations in the face of significant uncertainty.
We utilise advanced predictive analytics to build robust strategies and enable our clients to make calculated decisions.
We support implementation of adaptive capability and capacity.
Our latest
Thoughts
Global Advisors’ Thoughts: Empathy and understanding – why they are the qualities that help us achieve our own happiness and success
By Marc Wilson
Our team had just finished a book review presentation on Dale Carnegie’s “Making Friends and Influencing People”. Jane (*name changed) looked troubled: “Isn’t this stuff about manipulating people?”
Therein lies a paradox in showing empathy: without empathy for others, you face less influence, friendship, love and success. But if those are your goal rather than the sincere care for others, then your empathy is not really empathy at all.
Many people might react to empathy as “soft.” But empathy is a mark of incredible strength. It dares us to care. It requires us to put ourselves to one side. It requires us to be vulnerable – otherwise all we are doing is showing sympathy. Empathy requires self-awareness and skill.
Sympathy is easy. Sympathy does not go as far as empathy – it keeps us distant from the situation someone else is experiencing. It places us in danger of being condescending. Empathy requires us to put our self into their situation as them – not us.
Empathy gets the best out of those around us – and opens us up to be a better version of ourselves.
I find it incredibly difficult to manage a balance. A balance of being sufficiently confident and willing to share my own experience in an unbiased and helpful way – while removing enough of myself to allow someone else to find their own path and live their own experience. To be an empathetic leader, I believe I need to care about my team being at their best at work and in life.
Skills such as active listening are important to remove ourselves from the coaching we give others. But I think empathy requires us to be authentically present and involved in a way that facilitating someone else’s own solution does not.
Empathetic leadership challenges me to use my own experience and position in a way that is open to the challenges and experiences of others. And most critically demonstrates that I act out of care and acknowledgement of them.
Empathy requires that we know our self well enough that we are able to remove our projections of our own biases and feelings from the situation, appreciate the other person’s view of the world and how that impacts the situation for them.
Think about how you respond to others. How often do you respond to their experience, feelings and fears based on your own fears? Do your responses contain the word “I?” Do you fear genuinely experiencing the world as them? Do you seek to affirm your own view and experience through your response? Are you scared as being seen as similar to the other person in their own “deficiencies” and “imperfections”? How many of these imperfections are merely your own biases and fears?
Read more by clicking here: http://www.globaladvisors.biz/thoughts/20170627/empathy-and-understanding-why-they-are-the-qualities-that-help-us-achieve-our-own-happiness-and-success
Strategy Tools
Strategy Tools: Repeatable Business Models in Times of Uncertainty
By Innocent Dutiro
Innocent is an associate partner at Global Advisors and based in Johannesburg, South Africa
Research (Allen and Zook) tells us that sustained profitable growth and the methods for capturing it are much less about the choice of hot market than about the how and why of strategy and the business model translating it into action. The ongoing Coronavirus crisis is likely to put these beliefs to severe test. It is likely that the survivors and winners that emerge on the other side of the crisis will be businesses that have pursued repeatable business models.
These businesses’ approach to strategy focus less on a rigid plan to pursue growth markets and more on developing a general direction built around deep and uniquely strong capabilities that constantly learn, continuously improve, test, and adjust in manageable increments to the changing market. Repeatable business models enable organizations to distinguish between transient crises and game-changing developments while enabling them to take action that ensures their sustained prosperity. All without compromising on the beliefs that underpin the culture of the organization.
This might sound counterintuitive; how does a repeatable business model help you deal with a “black swan” event such as the COVID-19 pandemic? To answer this question, it is important to understand the three principles that underpin repeatability.
Principle 1: A strong, well-differentiated core
Differentiation drives competitive advantage and relative profitability among businesses. The basis for differentiation must deliver enhanced profitability by either delivering superior service to your core customers or offering cost economics that help you to out-invest your competitors. The unique assets, deep competencies and capabilities that make this differentiation possible and that are translated into behaviours and product features, define the “core of the core” of the business.
Principle 2: Clear non-negotiables
Non-negotiables are the company’s core values and key criteria used to make trade-offs in decision making. These improve the focus and simplicity of strategy by translating it into practical behavioural rules and prohibitions. This reduces the distance from management to the frontline (and back). Employee loyalty and commitment is driven primarily by a strong belief in the values of the management team and the organisation’s strategy. A clearly understood strategy is evidenced through:
- Widespread understanding of the strategy at all levels within the organization.
- Seeing the world the same way throughout the organization.
- A shared vocabulary and priorities.
Principle 3: Systems for closed-loop learning
Self-conscious methods to perceive and adapt to change alongside well-developed systems to learn and drive continuous improvement are hallmarks of successful repeatable business models.
A second form of closed-loop learning is more relevant to a crisis such as the coronavirus as it relates to those less frequent situations when fundamental change in the marketplace (like technology, competition, customer need and behaviour) threatens a key element of the repeatable business model itself. A company’s ability to adapt or have a sufficient sense of urgency in response to a potentially mortal threat is key to survival and continued prosperity.
The various steps that governments are taking to contain and eradicate the virus have the potential of building habits that consumers might choose to adopt on a more permanent basis even after the pandemic. These include working from home, remote meetings, reduced commuting, greater use of online services and more cashless transactions. Businesses thus need to be prepared to adjust and adapt their strategies and business models to meet the demand created by the new behaviours. Firms with a clearly defined set of non-negotiables will find it easier to mobilize their employees towards the necessary change.
While business is currently focused on taking measures to safeguard their staff, serve their customers and preserve cash to ensure liquidity during the period of low demand and/or production, attention should also be turning to steps necessary to adapt strategies to enable competitiveness in the new normal after the pandemic.
Fast Facts
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) can be applied to business portfolio decision-making
- Shareholders seek to maximise company profits while minimising risk
- However, lower risk businesses are usually accompanied with lower returns and high risk businesses with higher returns
- Comparisons between various risk and return profiles can be measured using the Sharpe ratio – return per unit of risk
- Combinations (degree of balance sheet investment) in individual portfolios could realise higher returns per unit of risk than what is achievable in an individual business unit – some combinations are not always obvious
- By exiting a higher risk-return portfolio BU J, ABC would be able to increase its return per unit of risk from 4,3 to 4,5
- It is often psychologically difficult for businesses to exit high return portfolios
- Emotional decision-making can be muted by applying the logic of modern portfolio theory in the board room
Selected News
Quote: Jane Fraser
“We are not graded on effort. We are judged on our results.” – Jane Fraser – Citi
The Quote in Context
On Wednesday, 15 January 2026, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser issued a memo titled “The Bar is Raised” to the bank’s 200,000+ employees, declaring: “We are not graded on effort. We are judged on our results.” This statement encapsulates Fraser’s uncompromising philosophy as she drives the institution through its most ambitious transformation in decades. The memo signals a decisive shift from process-oriented management to outcome-focused accountability-a cultural realignment that reflects both the pressures facing modern financial institutions and Fraser’s personal leadership ethos.
Jane Fraser: The Architect of Citigroup’s Transformation
Jane Fraser assumed the role of Citigroup CEO in March 2021, becoming the first woman to lead one of the world’s largest banking institutions. Her appointment marked a turning point for a bank that had struggled with regulatory compliance issues, operational inefficiency, and underperformance relative to competitors. Fraser arrived with a reputation for operational rigour, having previously served as head of Citigroup’s Latin America division and later as head of Global Consumer Banking.
Fraser’s tenure has been defined by a singular mission: transforming Citigroup from a sprawling, complex conglomerate into a leaner, more focused institution capable of competing effectively in the modern financial landscape. This vision emerged from a recognition that Citigroup had accumulated decades of technical debt, regulatory vulnerabilities, and organisational redundancy. The bank faced persistent criticism from regulators regarding its risk management systems, data governance, and compliance infrastructure-issues that had resulted in formal consent orders and substantial remediation costs.
Her leadership style emphasises clarity, accountability, and measurable outcomes. Fraser has repeatedly stated that “Citigroup must become simpler to manage and easier to regulate,” a principle that underpins every major strategic decision she has made. This philosophy directly informs the statement that “we are judged on our results”-a rejection of the notion that good intentions or diligent effort can substitute for tangible performance improvements.
The Transformation Initiative: Strategic Context
Fraser’s results-driven mandate cannot be separated from the “Transformation” initiative she launched in early 2024. This comprehensive programme represents one of the most significant restructuring efforts in Citigroup’s recent history, encompassing technology modernisation, organisational streamlining, and cultural reform. The Transformation targets the elimination of up to 20,000 roles over three years-approximately 10% of the workforce-with projected cost savings of $2.5 billion.
As of January 2026, more than 80% of the Transformation effort is complete. The initiative extends far beyond simple headcount reduction; it addresses fundamental operational inefficiencies accumulated over decades of acquisitions, regulatory changes, and technological stagnation. The programme includes the replacement of legacy systems with modern cloud-based infrastructure, the implementation of artificial intelligence across business processes, and the elimination of overlapping management layers that had created unclear reporting lines and diffused accountability.
The timing of Fraser’s “bar is raised” memo reflects a critical juncture. With the heavy lifting of the Transformation largely complete, the bank is transitioning from restructuring mode to performance mode. Fraser’s emphasis on results signals that the period of “transformation excuses” has ended. Employees can no longer attribute underperformance to system migrations or organisational upheaval. The infrastructure is in place; execution is now paramount.
Performance Metrics and Accountability
Fraser’s results-oriented philosophy manifests in concrete ways throughout Citigroup’s operations. The bank has redefined its success metrics, introducing new scorecards and performance expectations that emphasise commercial outcomes. Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) targets have been adjusted to 10-11% for 2026, with long-term ambitions remaining elevated. This metric-driven approach extends to compensation structures for senior leaders, where performance incentives are now explicitly tied to measurable business outcomes rather than effort or activity levels.
The memo’s emphasis on results reflects Fraser’s assessment that Citigroup’s competitive position depends on execution excellence. In 2025, the bank generated approximately $85 billion in revenue, up roughly 6% year-on-year. Investment banking fees reached nearly $1.3 billion, rising 35% annually, whilst advisory fees jumped more than 80% year-on-year. These figures demonstrate that Fraser’s strategy is yielding tangible returns, validating her results-focused approach.
However, Fraser acknowledges that the path remains incomplete. She has explicitly stated that Citigroup “fell behind in some areas last year, particularly around data as it relates to regulatory reporting.” Rather than accepting this as an inevitable consequence of transformation, Fraser treated it as a performance failure requiring immediate remediation. The bank reviewed its entire data programme, retooled governance structures, and increased investments in technology and talent. This response exemplifies her philosophy: identify gaps, assign accountability, and demand results.
The Broader Context: Results-Driven Leadership in Finance
Fraser’s emphasis on results reflects broader trends in financial services leadership, particularly in response to post-2008 regulatory environments and shareholder activism. The financial crisis exposed the dangers of process-oriented cultures where effort and activity could mask underlying risk or poor decision-making. Subsequent regulatory frameworks have increasingly emphasised accountability and measurable compliance outcomes.
Fraser’s philosophy also responds to competitive pressures within investment banking and wealth management. Citigroup’s rivals-JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America-have demonstrated that operational efficiency and focused business strategies drive superior returns. Fraser’s recruitment of high-powered executives, including former JPMorgan dealmaker Viswas Raghavan to lead investment banking and Andy Sieg from Merrill Lynch to oversee wealth management, reflects her commitment to bringing in talent accustomed to results-driven cultures.
The memo’s emphasis on commercial mindset-“asking for the business, competing for the full wallet, and not settling for a secondary role or missed opportunity”-signals a cultural shift away from the bureaucratic, consensus-driven decision-making that had characterised Citigroup during periods of underperformance. Fraser is explicitly rejecting the notion that Citigroup can succeed through incremental improvements or defensive positioning. Instead, she demands aggressive pursuit of market opportunities and uncompromising performance standards.
Artificial Intelligence and Future Productivity
Fraser’s results-focused mandate extends to technology adoption, particularly artificial intelligence. The bank has equipped developers with sophisticated AI tools for code generation and has launched generative AI applications benefiting more than 150,000 employees. Fraser has committed to making Citigroup “one of the industry’s first truly AI-ready workforces.”
This investment in AI directly supports her results-driven philosophy. Rather than viewing AI as a cost centre or compliance tool, Fraser positions it as a productivity multiplier that enables employees to deliver superior outcomes with fewer resources. As the bank’s outgoing Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason stated, “As we make progress on our Transformation, we’ll see that cost and headcount come down as we continue to improve productivity and tools like AI.” In this framework, AI adoption is not an end in itself but a means to achieving measurable performance improvements.
Leading Theorists and Philosophical Foundations
Fraser’s results-oriented leadership philosophy draws implicitly from several influential management and organisational theories:
Management by Objectives (MBO): Pioneered by Peter Drucker in the 1950s, MBO emphasises setting clear, measurable objectives and evaluating performance based on achievement of those objectives rather than effort or activity. Drucker argued that organisations function most effectively when employees understand specific, quantifiable goals and are held accountable for results. Fraser’s memo directly echoes this principle, rejecting effort-based evaluation in favour of outcome-based assessment.
Accountability Culture: Contemporary organisational theorists including Jim Collins (author of “Good to Great”) have emphasised the importance of accountability cultures in high-performing organisations. Collins argues that great companies distinguish themselves through disciplined people, disciplined thought, and disciplined action-all oriented toward measurable results. Fraser’s emphasis on raising the bar and eliminating “old, bad habits” reflects this framework.
Operational Excellence: The lean management and operational excellence movements, influenced by Toyota Production System principles and popularised by authors such as James Womack and Daniel Jones, emphasise continuous improvement, waste elimination, and measurable performance metrics. Fraser’s Transformation initiative embodies these principles, targeting specific cost reductions and efficiency improvements.
Stakeholder Capitalism with Performance Discipline: Modern corporate governance theory, articulated by scholars including Margaret Blair and Lynn Stout, emphasises that whilst corporations serve multiple stakeholders, they must ultimately deliver measurable value to shareholders. Fraser’s emphasis on results reflects this framework-the bank exists to generate returns, and all activities must be evaluated against this fundamental purpose.
The Memo’s Broader Message
Fraser’s statement that “we are not graded on effort; we are judged on our results” carries implications extending beyond individual performance evaluation. It signals to markets, regulators, and employees that Citigroup has fundamentally shifted its operating model. The bank is no longer in crisis management or remediation mode. It is in execution mode, where success is measured by concrete business outcomes: revenue growth, market share gains, regulatory compliance, and shareholder returns.
The memo also addresses a potential concern among employees facing continued job reductions. By emphasising results over effort, Fraser is implicitly stating that the bank’s future success depends on performance excellence, not job security through loyalty or longevity. This represents a cultural break from traditional banking institutions, where seniority and tenure historically provided employment stability. Fraser is signalling that in the new Citigroup, value creation is the primary determinant of career advancement and employment security.
Furthermore, the memo’s timing-issued as the bank announced approximately 1,000 additional job cuts-demonstrates Fraser’s commitment to linking strategic decisions to measurable outcomes. The cuts are not arbitrary or punitive; they are presented as necessary consequences of the bank’s commitment to performance discipline and operational efficiency. Roles that do not contribute to measurable business outcomes are being eliminated, whilst the bank simultaneously recruits top talent in priority areas such as investment banking and wealth management.
Conclusion: A Philosophy for Modern Banking
Jane Fraser’s declaration that “we are not graded on effort; we are judged on our results” encapsulates a leadership philosophy shaped by Citigroup’s specific challenges, contemporary management theory, and the competitive dynamics of modern financial services. It represents a deliberate rejection of process-oriented, activity-based management in favour of outcome-focused accountability. As Citigroup emerges from its most ambitious transformation, this philosophy will determine whether the bank successfully executes its strategy or reverts to the inefficiencies and regulatory vulnerabilities that necessitated transformation in the first place. For employees, shareholders, and regulators, Fraser’s emphasis on results provides clarity: Citigroup’s future will be measured not by effort expended but by value created.
References
4. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4111589/citigroup-c-eyes-further-layoffs-amid-profitability-push
5. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/citigroup-axe-1000-jobs-week-push-efficiency
6. https://finviz.com/news/276293/citi-cfo-says-credit-card-rate-caps-would-shrink-credit-hurt-economy
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