Plans and projections are all guesses because priorities change, people come and go from teams, and new bugs and constraints show up. Here’s a simple strategy to deal.
Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky first proposed the planning fallacy in 1977, highlighting the tendency for people to underestimate the time it takes to do things. A paper published by the Project Management Institute highlights examples of how this applied to the completion of professional projects such as Windows Vista, the construction of London’s Wembley stadium, the development of the Airbus 380, and Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. The news is also full of other examples, whether it’s Dr. Dre’s Detox album, George RR Martin’s Game of Thrones novels, or Blizzard Entertainment’s Starcraft: Ghost.